More Copper & Copper vs $SPX
~$2.10 looks like a strong possibility. Last chart from ZH Friday.
Polls
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Good stuff JL
Looks like Copper leads the SPX down !
Still trying to figure out how The Prez thinks his trade war will benefit his re election efforts
It looks to be potentially killing the SM rally here.
Trump isn’t omnipotent.
Personally, I think the whole world is heading into GFC 2.0. However, one scenario
I’m looking at is hard sell offs into year end, then the Fed really juices the markets
long enough for a vicious counter rally into Nov 2020. After that, GFC 2.0 begins in
earnest, takes a year for everything to bottom.
Then helicopter money begins.
Nice charts. A price objective of $2.10 seems about right. How long might it take to get there?
No clue.
IMO, this bear market in base metals is being engineered by political maneuvering by Trump to get Fed to commit to rate cut cycle. They believe that a booming economy will win the 2020 election for them. This is very bullish for silver prices over the longer term which may cause a supply squeeze in the not too distant future.
I don’t think Trump is that smart to try to manipulate base metals…that’s a huge stretch
By exacerbating a trade war he seems to be shooting himself.
The Stock market and economy will not do well in this environment.
Not base metals in particular but commodities in general.
>>IMO, this bear market in base metals is being engineered by political maneuvering by Trump to get Fed to commit to rate cut cycle.<<
Completely disagree. The problem begins at the periphery and works toward the centre. Right now the problem is with foreign markets in Europe and Asia. Think contagion.
1. I am happy to admit to being naive about how the world copper markets work, but I would suspect that the Chinese government and many Chinese enterprises may like copper prices low–and might be capable of some clever feints or manipulations to keep them low for a while in order to buy while the trade war story is being told. But I am making idle uninformed conjecture. I truly do know very little about such things.
2. Of the 5 little Cu companies own 3 have attractive (charts to my eye). A 4th’s is ambiguous maybe on the plus side, maybe. #5 is on the verge of being sold depending on how it acts over the next week–ambiguous on the negative side. Maybe these charts depend on the specifics of the companies in question. Maybe all of them will worsen in short order. I will watch these charts not the copper charts so much.
3. “Base metals” being bad? I may sound like a broken record (anyone else remember records?) but, again, to me the nickel charts look good: see http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical.html and enlarge them — or bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=XX%3ASPGSIK&insttype=Index for a short term chart.
I wish there were a way of editing! I am SO bad with typos! Apologies!!
#2 should start out —
“2. Of the 5 little Cu companies I own 3 have attractive charts (to my eye). “