Reasons To Be Cheerful
As per Norvasts comments, we’re forming a Yearly Cycle Low in gold. Yearly cycle lows do a very good job of resetting sentiment. The following chart should give some hope if you’re feeling depressed. Gold to $1000 or less ? I really don’t think so.
Wow I was just going to comment on Norvast’s info in this previous thread, https://goldtadise.com/?p=433192 when this post popped up. Yes, I too was fretting yesterday about gold’s YCL because the past ones have pretty reliably come in December. So I didn’t know if an “early” YCL now in August was too unlikely to be considered legit. I’m glad that Norvast says that it doesn’t contradict any cycle rules because then the YCL is another very important and significant duck lining up in a row.
Once again, I thank you both for this very interesting conversation and for sharing the info here. I’d urge anyone interested in cycles to re-read Norvast’s comments at the link above. There’s a real wealth of info there, especially how to use the cycles of other assets to get a handle on and reasonable confirmation of gold’s cycle.
Cheers to Northstar and Cheese Mite to Norvast.
You’re very welcome CT. I’m glad you find it helpful. Norvasts excellent cycle knowledge really helps me put these technical charts into context. It’s important to know when to worry, or more importantly when to hold your nerve and when to bail out. If I’d known this YCL was going to retrace this far, I would’ve sold a greater proportion of my portfolio, but I’m not overly worried because I plan to ride the 15 year cycle to the top. I expect at least one large correction (probably a mid cycle correction in the early 2020’s), and many less severe pullbacks at cyclical lows on the way.
Update…15 Aug
USD on calendar day 37 seeking a DCH
Gold on calendar day 43 seeking a DCL/ICL/YCL
GDX on calendar day 48 seeking a DCL/ICL/YCL
AUD on calendar day 44 seeking a DCL/ICL/YCL
We have a bounce pencilled here but remember that after the USD turns down it may not take long for it to host a DCL and commence another daily cycle. If that daily cycle is to be left translated then the USD will roll over after 11-16 calendar days.
So gold may get a bounce until mid next week then fall again until the USD hosts a DCH in early Sep.
As a follow up to my previous comment take a look at NST.AX
The current half cycle correction should end soon with a HCL
Then it will bounce and host a DCH around calendar day 34 or 23 Aug
It will then move lower into a DCL around calendar day 47-55 or 05-13 Sep
It is NOT unreasonable to think that GOLD will eventually move lower and host an ICL in that early Sep time frame as we know that moves into a YCL are drawn out affairs (sometimes around calendar day 63)
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/NST.AX/technical-chart?plot=CANDLE&volume=total&data=DO&density=M&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&indicators=WILLR(21,100);SMA(10);SMA(50);STOSL(14,3)&sym=NST.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100
Northstar for an interesting potential fractal look at the period Jun – Dec 2008 (no time adjustment) exactly 10 years ago.