More Dollar/Gold Symmetry
Fully, you are likely correct…but the outlook for Gold might not be quite so dire.
While the outlook for the Dollar is higher, and that is clearly a MAJOR headwind for the entire PM complex, it’s possible that Gold won’t close below its most recent multi-year low of $1,045.40 made in December 2015.
Good point Boo. I see you are using a log scale which is somewhat less dramatic than my linear scale
It is interesting Gold bottomed 2 years before the dollar topped last go round
Also while the Dollar has just made new highs Gold has not made new lows
A Positive divergence of sorts
The USD 15 year cycle is about to top and signal a new commodity cycle.
From the low on 02 Sep 1992 it rose for 106 months to 06 Jul 2001
It then dropped for 80 months to it’s 15 year low on 17 Mar 2008
If it was to follow a similar time sequence then a 106 month rise places us in mid Jan 2017
Gold and other commodities have already moved higher in anticipation of this cycle high.
When the USD tops and commences it’s descent into the 15 year low gold and other PM’s will enter their “bull”market.
We are almost there!
That should read “when the USD tops and enters it’s descent into the 15 year cycle low gold and other PM’s and other commodities will enter their “bull” market”.
A 80 month down period would place the low for the USD around Sep 2023
I am expecting the high for the USD to come as early as 01 Jan 2017
Norvast
Somebody somewhwere ( Might be Armstrong) uses 17 year cycles , 8.5 year half cycles
I have this number in the back of my mind for some reason. Is 17 not a significant cycle number ( derivative of Pi or something )
I have marked a possible 17 year USD Cycle on my chart below for your consideration
1985 was THE big kahoona top ( Plaza Accord) then 2002 then 2019 ?
Ah…here it IS …This Rhymes …BUGS…
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/17-year-cycle-of-the-cicadas/
Nothing is all that exact but it is generally agreed that “on average” the USD has a 15 year cycle.
Sometimes a short period down is followed by a long period up and vice versa.
The low prior to the 05 Mar 1984 high was 18 Mar 1980 so in that case we had a 48 months up followed by 102 months down to 02 Sep 1992 making a cycle length of 150 months low – low
I guess the point I am making is that at 106 months from the 17 Mar 2008 low we are at the max time for a leg within a cycle (either up or down)
I am also influenced by the 30 year gold cycle in this case the 1970-2000 and 2000-2030 each with a 1/2 cycle correction that coincides with the high USD
The fact that gold is still in monthly up-trend from the 2015 low despite a significant correction that coincided with a rising USD makes me think that the time has arrived for a reversal.
In order to make America great again I would be surprised that there is some policy machinations taking place to lower the USD in order to make US manufacturers competitive (without massive protection).
I am also comforted by rising commodity prices and the AUS miners are doing very well and the government smiling again with the increased revenue gained from the big miners.
In summary I remain positive and fully invested in gold & other commodities.
My analysis supports that scenario. Down hard into mid 2018, a consolidation, then down to new lows into the trough of the cycle.
The peak is most probably in already, or close. Most are on the wrong side of the trade, as usual.
A number of the USD crosses have hit areas that you could quite easily see a turn, and some are showing signs of short term (which can obviously tuen into long terms) tops. With the timing windows called by you guys, this is giving me the conivction to hold any trades longer. I am short USDCAD and long AUDUSD. Will be looking to add more if the low risk trades present themselves.
I know Avi is agreeing with you from an EW perspective too.
One only has to look at this chart, and it sets off alarm bells.
Firstly, TIME is up, as its past its due by date for 30 year and 15 year, and also the 2:1 harmonics 7.5 yrs and 45 months.
Secondly look where USD price is in relation to 1999. is that the best it can do? And look where gold was in 1999, compared to today, at the same USD price.
What does that say?