Goldtent TA Paradise

NYSE Composite Weekly – Bullish

1. Surf City says:

   May 19, 2016 - 10:34 pm at 10:34 pm

   Mark, you are potentially correct here but I see the current downturn as an analog or fractal to the 2000-02 Bear. If you examine that period closely, many indexes broke their initial downtrend lines (e.g. DOW, Trannies, NYA, SPX) at different points but the Bear was still in control. That Bear took 34 months top to bottom and had many false starts. The 2008 crash took only 17 months (Fib 50% in Time) and is not a good comparison as no trend lines were broken. Currently, we are only 12 months into this downturn from a time perspective.

   I am not an Elliott Wave expert by any stretch, but one of the principles is that Waves must not be the same and must alternate. The 2000-02 period is not exact but no Fractal ever is. The closer I compare the two periods, the more similarities I see.

   For me to confirm that the Bear has ended here, I need to see a 5-6 month higher IC Low followed by a higher IC High. That has not happened on any index yet that I can find.