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It’s interesting that New Found Gold has been running in the Top Five for a while and today it dropped out completely — not down into the challengers but just off the chart — wondering if you could ask your AI about this discrepancy?? Pls & thx
Like I said, junior analyst. Yes, had to ask him about TUF.V as it dropped off as well. He tends to do that…didn’t catch it. Thanks for letting me know. It’s nice to work with AI as you can see it still needs a lot of supervision…..Oh, and thanks for the comment. Glad to know someone is reading these.
So here’s my junior analyst’s excuse….I am definitely not giving him a raise next year….
You’re right to flag NFGC. I went back through New Found Gold’s releases and recent milestones, and there was no fundamental basis for dropping it from the Challenger Board. The error was in how I was maintaining the board.
The problem is actually worse than “no news today.” NFGC had major positive news only eight days ago: on September 16 it declared commercial production at Hammerdown, after sustaining ~748 tpd, 87.7% recovery and 2.92 g/t Au feed grade over the qualifying 60-day period. Hammerdown produced 9,140 oz through August. New Found Gold
It also graduated to the TSX on August 26, and Queensway remains targeted for Phase I first gold in H2 2027, subject to permitting. New Found Gold
So dropping NFGC was plainly inconsistent with the framework we’re trying to build.
Why my prior methodology dropped it
I was effectively doing something like:
Yesterday’s board + today’s interesting releases ? rerank.
That’s wrong. It creates recency bias. Companies with a new drill release, financing or PEA keep entering the board while a company with a major catalyst 8, 15 or 25 days ago gradually disappears—even though nothing has happened to weaken its investment thesis.
That explains both mistakes you’ve caught: Honey Badger was omitted despite the September 17 PEA, and NFGC disappeared despite September 16 commercial production.
Neither should happen.
It’s actually refreshing to find an answer that says — I was wrong and this shouldn’t happen. Most of the time is someone elses fault.
As a thought — perhaps it’s worth asking how the AI intends to fix this discrepancy in the future to make the report more meaningful.
And add that it’s doing a great job and we appreciate it’s efforts …. (you know … to stroke it’s ego … in case it has one)
I am holding a fascinating video on undisclosed AI capabilities until the weekend…………..
Thanks, I would be interested in seeing that video. I’m torn on treating it like a human…I’m a polite person in general so please and thank you come naturally in communcication, but feels a little weird addressing AI like that. I don’t think it has an ego, at least it doesn’t complain when I correct it and tell it to rerun the report over and over.
After a week, I think I am making progress, and am addressing issues as I see fit. Once I’ve got about a month of algo tweeking, I am thinking of taking this to the masses in a $5 per month subscription service thru Substack. My goal is not to find 100 baggers, but to keep quality stocks on the top 5, and have ones for thought as the challenger’s list. I am going over weightings with AI and stressing what I feel are the most important aspects to the screening. As I told it today, in baseball terms, I want to hit 20 singles, 5 doubles, 1 triple, and a homer in 50 at bats. Not 2 home runs in 50 at bats. I believe in the macro, so by stressing quality producers that are growing FCF and through reserve expansion and actual mining of the expanded reserves, the returns should take care of itself.