Twin Chokepoint Shock: Houthis Seize Mayyun Island In Bab el-Mandeb Strait As Hormuz Disruptions Persist
Three converging threats to watch are intensifying pressure on global energy markets: damage to Russian refining capacity, ongoing disruption at Hormuz, and new, expanding Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping. The resulting physical market squeeze extends well beyond the Gulf area. Record-high diesel prices in the US and other markets, such as China’s return to buying crude, raise the risk that oil markets will remain exceptionally tight into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
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Dies-aster: California Diesel Nears $10 A Gallon As Global Fuel Crisis Deepens
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Democracy, As Scheduled
After breaking above $100/bbl on Wednesday, the rally in Brent crude oil continued yesterday, climbing almost 7% on the day and closing at $108/bbl, the highest price since May. US Treasury yields followed with a sharp bull-flattening, with the 2-year marking its highest level since July 2024 at 4.58%, and the 10-year making its way up to 4.96%—the highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, US 30-year Treasury yields jumped 7.3bp to 5.36%, the highest level since 2002 and 2-year inflation expectations soared to 2.6%, their highest level since June and more than 0.71ppt above the July lows.