Loading ...90% OF THE STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY LATELY IS UBER BEARISH….SO
My call, next 30-60 days:
-Irans IRGC will collapse.
– Oil into the $50’s.
-Pure disinflation will become the primary trend (well into the 2030’s) as rates plummet. Sub 4% 10 yr in Q4 and 3.5% in Q1 2027.
– No, Kevin Warsh is most certainly NOT a hawk.
-Interest rate sensitive names will begin a parabolic
move higher into year end.
-Groups to own; semis/tech, small caps, gold, silver…especially gold miners… housing, Bitcoin.
I’ll say one thing the S&P 500 looks like it is going to advance and break out. There is huge money flow into the USA looking for AI exposure.
PLUS 1
how about emerging markets ETFs???
Gold and silver are going to crash soon. Good to own after that.
“– Oil into the $50’s.”
“-Interest rate sensitive names will begin a parabolic
move higher into year end.”
I believe these two points are opposed to one another – rates up (above 5%), stocks down, oil UP. << this signals a crisis in the bond market – good for PM's and Oil I'd counter.
Your forecast indicates the gold oil spread is going to widen even more (oil moving further down against the winds of gold)…. historically they (generally) trend together with systemic devaluation of the dollar's buying power.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1334/gold-prices-vs-oil-prices-historical-correlation
https://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart
if oil = 50
at (conservative but still VERY high historically) GOR of 65 – I say conservative because this is the trend in the ratio since 2022.
Gold would be at 3250 << not likely IMO.
steady (at 65) Gold silver ratio at gold 3250 would put silver at 50 (note this assumes we're going back to Oil price = Silver price 1:1 historically stretched relationship.
If gold goes down to 3250 silver most definitly will not go down proportionatly, but sell off HUGELY below the 50 mark. << I don't see this happening.
IMO the likelyhood of 50 oil means a silver forcast of the 40's (not very likely as I will have bought up all the obove ground silver by then) /sarc.
Its all about timeframe.
Much of the commentary studiously avoids timing. They see a Big Bear approaching but don’t know when.
I’m with both Fully and Plunger over coming weeks, for a “breakout” of sorts.
But my tools do NOT expect a zinger.
Re AI, everywhere I look respects the capability of AI, but can’t justify it at current full pricing at embedded cost plus. Same as dark fiber in 2001.
RE Timing – since 1946 how long has the GOR been over 30?
I’ll wait.