Loading ...PLUNGER’S PM BEAR MARKET ANALYSIS :REPOST
This piece of work rocked the PM World.
We were fortunate to have Plunger post this at Rambus and linked here at the Tent…worth a re look !
https://rambus1.com/2021/07/03/weekend-report-state-of-the-gold-mining-stocks-bull-or-bear-plunger/
Just a few points I would like to highlight. IMO the most important thing in this entire report is Robert Rhea’s quote:
The correct determination of the primary trend is the most important factor in successful speculation.
I sense that very few investors actually get this truism. The last 2 months has shown the critical nature of this principle. I suggest writing it out and posting it on your computer.
When this piece came out there was a lot of violent rejection of it. That’s because we had not passed the point of recognition, we have now. Investors still don’t like it, but the market has progressed enough to where bulls are questioning there commitment to the to the moon now narrative.
Here is where I wish I could have done better: I wish I had put together the puzzle that the blow off rally in silver a year ago was the signal that the 2 year bull market from 2018-2019 was likely ending action. The proper course would have been to fully exit and go play in a different sandbox.
Real Time Euphoria is tough to corral .
“IMO the most important thing in this entire report is Robert Rhea’s quote: The correct determination of the primary trend is the most important factor in successful speculation. I sense that very few investors actually get this truism. The last 2 months has shown the critical nature of this principle. I suggest writing it out and posting it on your computer.”
Absolutely. BUT … In all my years of following folks outline their TA methods, I’ve yet to see anyone lay out HOW they DISCERN the primary trend …. even Richard Russell with his PTI, he published it daily and remarked on its components but I was never able to reproduce it !!!! And now he’s long gone. Even with my charting tools, I go elsewhere to Elliott for my take on that concept. I have LT and VLT trend metrics, but neither reach what I deem “Primary” in sympathy with Rhea’s intentions.
Sir Pedro,
Numerous examples tell us that eventually the teacher(s) go away, and we are left on our own to find the path further.
Some lessons of some teachers will be correct at some point in our lives and other lessons will be correct at some different points in time.
Isn’t that unknown what makes us fearful of the future?
None of the teachers were wrong.
I loved one Hindi/Indian movie for this very lesson.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3148502/
GL
Rambus’ Chartology finds the trends early and stays on trend.
Always…In My Experience .