Bear market action continues
This is about as clear of a chart pattern as one could see. Now its due a backtest, but I would suggest if one is dogmatically bullish then perhaps its time to check your enthusiasm. Lower lows lay ahead.
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I’m a little weary to call that a H&S, as the February price spike was an anomaly (so no real head). But that being said, the bears like you have been more that right, so I wouldn’t be shocked at anything at this point.
Fair enough… I suppose one could call it a high level consolidation. But the key is the support line holds major significance. It has been holding back the tide. It has now burst and the pent up energy is now being released. But the big picture is that its just another crucial data point confirming the action going on in the other indexes GDX, GDXJ etc.
Thanks for the heads up weeks ago on this. Exited my position back then. Good call!
No one of course can get them all right, but this is a good position to be in, cashed up in a stable mental condition, prepared to interpret the language of the market in an attempt to identify the bottom. Also we now have a model to apply towards the market in an attempt to understand it. Specifically we will be looking for some markers along the way. Markers such as a POR (perhaps now) and a transition from phase II to Phase III. Also watch for the capitulation once in Phase III.
One of my regrets is that I should have gone into the TLT vs cash.
TIME FOR JDST ?
The time has past for JDST
Just looked at JDST … has more life imo, but not from here.
Also just looked at SILJ mo. I discussed my thinking on “oversold” over the weekend.
I have FOUR OS buy signals in the last five years at monthly degree. Only the last one stuck. The others later saw lower lows. So even oversold at monthly degree doesn’t secure a durable bottom. Tells you what I think of daily and weekly charts.
On my RSI indicator, SILJ still has quite a ways to go.
On my other key indicator (CCI based) it is now in OS territory. It could easily stay there awhile.
The March 2020 lows that marked the bottom, satisfied both of these OS conditions. I have no rules defining sufficiency for THE FINAL BOTTOM. Just candidates to try. One is nearing. Given what EW thinks, it would only be for a fling.