Gold & Silver Haven’t Been Smashed
I can only repeat and endorse Plungers message. I began to realise what had happened yesterday. The price of gold and silver isn’t being ‘smashed down’ (‘paper’ price has). Not only that, there’s been a massive surge in demand. So much so that all of my usual suppliers have messages like this on their websites…
Does that sound like usual ‘bear market’ behaviour ? Of course not. In my view, Plunger is 100% correct. That being the case, quality names are (temporarily) available at deep discount and should be bought.
Ask yourself this… just how many big companies/organisations are going to be in financial difficulty because of Covid-19 ? How many profit warnings will result ? How many bankrupcies are likely ? Let’s face it, our governments can’t step in and save them all. They might try, but it just isn’t possible. Then ask yourself how much profit a well run gold mining company must be generating at these prices (just go online and check out the ‘all in sustaining cost’ required by some of these companies). The short answer is that they must be doing exceedingly well, and we’ll know more once they release their most recent accounts. This tiny sector will suddenly look very attractive to hedge fund managers and investors. It doesn’t take much of a shift in the allocation of ‘big money’ to set these shares alight.
In summary, my advice is to position into these quality producers (Plunger mentions a few) and not get shaken out of the market. Maybe we could have a discussion about the best names. Plunger mentions Franco Nevada Gold Corp, Newmont, Pan American Silver Corp (I’m not sure who ‘Gold and AU AGI are). I would add Sibanye, Yamana, Sandstorm, Kinross, and maybe (I know many don’t trust them) Barrick.
Barrick and Gold merged to form new Gold
AU Anglogold
AGI is Alamos gold
The question is are Miners leading the Metals…?
Answer is not: Look at the ratio. XAU to gold it got smashed in short time. But soon miners will lead metal.
I suspect the same, it happened in the oil, the oil stocks were way down, while oil is trading above 50, when Russuia and Saudi disagement came later and oil fell sharply.
Who knows, Gold may drop $300-400 in week, to match the pricing of miners, this is crazy time now. We know fundamentals change very late.
It may happen 2 reasons, 1, hedging most investment firm using gold as hedge to stock market, when stock market fall 30-40%, what they would do is sell Gold claim insurance, other wise what is the purpose of hedging.
2. Liquidity issue, where you will sell everything to raise cash, including gold, bonds etc.
If we are in a DEFLATIONARY CYCLE then yes indeed the Miners are leading the metals and the ratios will eventually aleign…energy prices should be the predominant TELLTALE…underlying the Miners is their LIQUIDITY AND RELATIVE BALANCE SHEETS… most are highly leveraged to the prices of PM’s with HIGH YIELD DEBT and DIMINISHING CASH FLOWS…eventually this should lead to Consolidation…once Deflations subsidies and Inflation exerts itself then yes PM’s/Miners will fly… but as with all things in life TIMING IS EVERYTHING…GL
IMHO…we could see a knee jerk spike in AU/AG but failure to achieve new higher highs will lead to Lower Lows…
Shortage? Really? If I call my dealer I can get any quantity!
Gold hardly corrected,so why the panic? Gold price is up 500$ since the 1200$ bottom and everybody panics. It seems logical after such a strong rise we have a setback of at least 10% or more giving $1450 as a target. Where all the experienced investors here? In the run from 2000-2008, gold always corrected to its 60MA on a weekly basis and then bull run started again. The same is happening now. No shortages. No conspiracy, just profit taking. Next will be run to 1800$+
Yep. Its hard to see clear amidst all the noise
I agree action on miners is very hard, but as long as we look at individual miners like GOLD, NEM, then I find everything normal and just another correction. Action in GDX is different, but these are ETF’s and can be be temporary trading at discount/premium to nav. Remember when the PSLV was trading at 20%+ premum in 2010?
I went on line to add gold bullion to my cart at a few sites and didn’t have much of any issues.
Yes, there are some shipping delays, but not much else.
It is my contention that silver is being completely mispriced and there is going to be a incredible opportunity in silver. We are in a crisis and markets are swinging wildly. During the last crisis silver had a washout in October 2008(see chart) and now with hindsight it was an incredible bargain. IMO, we are going to get another opportunity to buy silver stupid cheap!!! Now going to your favorite coin deal you will mostly like find that as the price of silver is falling they are raising their premiums because they are in business to make profits. I have been a silver stacker for decades so I have a decent stack and i know all about “if you don’t hold it you don’t own it” mantra. As much as I am an honest money advocate the reality is we are stuck with the paper money scheme, but hey the coin dealers are happy to take it for silver and gold! So here is my game plan I will wait patently for a spike down in silver that just might occur if silver breaks the 2015 lows. I will hold my nose and buy the SLV cost averaging down trying my best to catch the lows. Once I have my position I will then ride out SLV and wait for the smoke to clear which may take a couple years. I will be looking then to take profits selling into exuberance and with those fiat dollars go shopping at my favorite coin dealer. I would love to hear where I am making a mistake if you would kindly point it out…Mahalo nui loa
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$silver&p=w&yr=13&mn=8&dy=0&id=p5444238265c&a=614027596
yes, sounds good JS
What about a more solid fund like PSLV instead of SLV? Just a thought. I do like your approach. What % of your assets do you hold on the physical side?
What % of your assets do you hold on the physical side?… never really figured it out exactly but at least 50% PSLV and CEF would work also but SLV has huge volume and I am not holding it because I believe it is silver I am using to trade for paper $ then buy real silver or gold maybe toilet paper HA!
I found years ago that you could buy silver dollars pretty cheap on Ebay.
They have 3/4 oz of silver in them. I was picking them up for a few dollars each….A lot of them!
The other day I posted, what about GOEX, GDXJ and SIL SILJ also how damn far was JNUG down?!?