Stan’s “gold call” circa fall ’99
Alfa… I think is what you are refering to? This is how I would of played according to Stan’s framework…
Indeed.. without looking at the complex.. and just the chart. an entry could of been warranted.. with an exit when closed below 30 week sma… losing 1 -2 % of nav (or whatever his money management protocols were)
He does mention in his book to make sure higher time frame in your favor… he must of skipped this step! As the monthly chart clearly shows still some churning to be done.
So.. that is why I have a “custumized” version of Stan’s stage analysis… making it more versatile.. more noise reduced.. less whipsaws.
In his defense… his timing was wrong in 99 (that is why you have money management protocols)… but did he mention if he got back in when the chart started again to turn up in 2002?
Stan’s work with stage analysis is legendary… even Mark Minervini mentions Stan in his book…a random meeting with him got him on track to use it as the technical staple in his framework.
I’m trying to say.. take the best that fits your trading profile… and make it better with a collage of ideas! The more tailored your frame work is to your tastes.. the easier it will be to be respected when the action is intense!
My point simply is that it’s difficult to predict what will happen next, no matter how well-thought out a system is.
As my dad, an early chartist, said to me when I asked over 50 years ago which way the market would go next. “Wait a minute while I pull out my crystal ball”. LOL. Father Knows Best.
I totally agree. My enthusiasm sometime makes it look like “I know”… I know NOTHING! I always have my trading framework that decides for me. Our job is to try to estimate probabilities of a possible move to materialize… assess risk (possible losses)… and possible rewards. Father does know best! #Wisdom
Excellent use of many tools in the toolbox to get the job accomplished. I’m printing this out and implementing it. Thanks a ton!