Loading ...Retail Money Part 1
Where is my cannon fodder? You say cannon fodder.. I say fuel! We seem to have a little of both 2001 AND 2010 take-off properties.
2001 was mostly smart money discounting monetary imbalances to come in wake of the dot com bubble… 3-4 years later, when the crowd money finished licking it’s wounds… jumped on the gold trade which had gathered good momentum and visibility… giving it a turbo boost till the 2008 crash.. where the retail guys got margin called and forced back to side lines.
Smart money continued pouring in as more monetary imbalances had to be discounted… not sure if retail funds ever got back in to same extent.
Fast forward to 2018… mini crash in late December… Powell and the fed do a 180… no more tightening.. easing and QE to come! Smart money AND crowd money in the trade now, discounting the resumption of monetary imbalances.
Turbo boost mode could already be enacted… until the monetary balances are fixed… OR the retail money funds have to leave us because of another equities crash.
Edit: maybe shouldn’t user smart vs crowd money… would need some more charts to support that… again.. new rabbit hole! Please bear with me.
Edit: notice retail funds approaching all time highs for the 3rd time… previous 2 peaks were right before us equities crashes. 2001 crash did NOT hurt gold as retail funds were NOT in it… 2008 crash did hurt gold as retail funds were in it.. What will happen now?
Off-topic – except that I feel like cannon fodder or some kind of fodder right now. I feel vulnerable when everything is online. I am reminded with a problem with Fidelity now.
I placed 2 trades at Fidelity at the open of the market, logged off. Then decided to make a 3d.
Then logged on and saw I had allegedly zero in my accounts. “Portfolio” showed zero. Other parts of the website were working normally including the lists of stocks I follow.
However I saw at Downdetector ( https://downdetector.com/status/fidelity/ ) a surge of reports of problems starting exactly when my problem started.
After some time on hold I got to Fidelity on the phone. I thought I probably needed to report the problem to get in line in case there had been a mass hacking and depletion of accounts. I was told it was a website problem — that they could see what was in my accounts.
Nevertheless it makes me feel like some kind of fodder, certainly vulnerable. What if I had intended to transfer some money fast and then jump on a train or something like that? What if in fact the system had been hacked or down for weeks?
I do not like this digital dependence so much.
Quite irritating. The website now works, but too late for me. I had logged on to buy a bit of PLG for a quick trade, but was thwarted by the glitch. Now it is **way** over where I think it was a great short-term bet, so I won’t do it.
However I worry about other things in life being too overdigitized, that we are being lured in and then the cannons will be aimed on us.
In 2006… I remember trading penny stocks… I also lived a “technical glitched” on my personnel account page via my brokers websites… and quite a scary one. I put a buy order for 0.0065 … only to see it had been filled… but for 0.65 a share! My jaw dropped… with my heart racing to 200 bpm… I took a print screen and called them. By the time I got a hold of them, I had logged off and on.. and the correct amounts was shown! Oufff. What if I would of had a heart-attack? Another time was in 2012… I logged on my broker and saw my NAV was ZERO!!!! What the hell happened? Well… it was a migration my broker was doing to a new account #.. and the NAV was shortly visible once again. Still.. might heart raced not understanding what was happening. So yeah…we are vulnerable to those tech “glitches”