Loading ...Wicks contain noise
Silver is surely volatile.
A higher time frame trend analysis is super important to reduce noise and false signals… all those bearish days have a higher probability of being just noise (visible in wick), than being a reversal.
The higher trend will do that to the smaller time frame.
Your emphasis on being wary of transient fluctuations is one that I support. An adroit trader might even trade against apparent moves.
I used to spend lots of time with statistical software trying to do much the same thing. I would spend lots of time estimating probability of moves being a transient outliers versus the starts of a new trends (in the sorts of time frames I was interested in). You may have found more efficient, easier to come by ways of getting rid of the noise, what with this chart and the point and figure stuff with cycles as a filter.
I will be interested to see how it works out.
Yes Karl … It reminds me when I was a teen playing tennis with my friend… I was not a bad player… but often found myself on the wrong end of the score… until I figured out I was trying to much… trying is good to learn, but in a game, simple wins it most of the time. I stopped going for the white tape.. made less unforced errors.. and by magic I started winning! Same for trading applies. Reduce noise. Reduce whipsaws. Win more. Super simple.
That’s a great story and a great analogy.