Goldtent TA Paradise

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” –Keynes

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   October 1, 2019 - 8:54 am at 8:54 am

   Nice Patrick

   And thanks for the white background

   I can see…I can see

   🙂

2. Avocado Pit says:

   October 1, 2019 - 9:29 am at 9:29 am

   I do not see the “cluster” of positive net positions. The first “cluster” is obvious, multiple positive net positions over a long period. The last “cluster” is very short, then it drops all the way down to the area of negative net positions from the previous area you highlighted.

   When I look at the long term view of gold, going back to the 70’s, I see a relatively short bull market (10 years) peaking out in 1980 (I was heavily involved in silver at the time) followed by a 20+ year bear market. Rinse and repeat. Bull market, 2001 to 2011, followed by bear market, 2011 to 2031? I do not see how the fundamental background creates a bull market in gold, in fact, I see the complete opposite. We are at peak debt, and as we all know, “all debts get paid” either by actual payment or default. In either case very negative for gold and other commodities.

   • Patrick says:

     October 1, 2019 - 10:28 am at 10:28 am

     The lesson here is that the price action can exaggerate waaay longer than any fundamentals dictate they should. That is true for stocks, commodities, or anything else that humans trade for. If the goal is to make money, the only true and final metric that counts is the price action. As long as the price action is above an inclining 12 month moving average, I’m not gonna short. Market will tell me when the ride is over, it’s the best analyst out there!

3. Karl says:

   October 1, 2019 - 10:22 am at 10:22 am

   On gold–I would describe it differently. It depends on your time frame. It’s been going up! Down lower left, up upper right! I think it will continue to go up long term most likely!! I happen to have been dumping a lot of my PM stocks over the past couple of weeks in keeping with the suggestions of, for example, Jordan, in the excellent posting below, though I derived my motivations largely from other sources. It seems to have a habit of going up a lot then down a bunch but it is overall trending up. I think it’s pretty clear it’s a “bull market”. Loooong term though.

   As for other “commodities” I don’t know that I care to say in general.

   Now off to sell even more PM and base metal stocks for the short term. Bye. (But will keep an eye out for some great bargains soon I hope.)

4. Atomic says:

   October 1, 2019 - 10:32 am at 10:32 am

   If the SM tanks does everything sell off…

5. dadoc1 says:

   October 1, 2019 - 10:38 am at 10:38 am

   Would love for this model to become reality….