Loading ...My Dollar Outlook…
…is distinctly different to Parabolic Chucks, but that’s the beauty of this site – lots of differing views and opinions. Anyway, this the way I’m visualising price action over the last 30 years or so, starting with a close up of the bearish wedge I’ve been following…
Putting that into the context of the last few years…
and finally, looking even further back to take in the previous Dollar cycle…
I’ve positioned the grey ‘cycles’ very subjectively, and not exactly where the precise cycle tops and bottoms are – it’s just to convey a broad ‘theme’, i.e. my conceptual model representing the overall themes (topping, basing, breakout and breakdown levels, support and resistance zones and overall cyclical forces). A break above about 98.5 would get me thinking differently.
Wow Compelling
Thanks Northstar
Glad we have opposing views though.
There are always bullish and bearish patterns.
If you only look at one side and not the other you miss things…
My view, for what it’s worth, is that the Euro, pound, Yen, Dollar etc are going to take it in turns to weaken versus gold. As far as the Dollar index goes, I try not to overthink it. I’ve tried too many times to apply logic to markets, and they just defy it. Instead I’m focussing solely on the chart patterns in relation to decades long cyclical behaviour. I could envisage a bullish Dollar outcome for a number of reasons, but I favour the bearish outcome primarily because of where we are in time, and also the European pact to begin bypassing the Dollar for trade settlement, and the Russians, Chinese etc are all doing the same. Donald Trump has stated repeatedly that he wants to weaken the Dollar, and has put in place 2 new Fed members of his choosing. I respect your view however, and will watch closely for invalidation of my thesis.
I agree Northstar … if the $USD is so important, how is it that gold has gone from $1165 to $1440 over the last year and the dollar remained sideways? I think the $USD is starting to get it’s marching orders from gold and not the other way around!
What’s your take on the Euro? It’s 50% of the dollar.
It looks like crap to me Chuck…see above chart