I’ve been a naysayer
on gold and silver for several months.
Needless to say, this move caught me by surprise. (That’s what happens when one chooses to ignore Plunger.)
I may be old, but I still have some pretty decent reflexes.
Managed to grab some decent stocks plus went to options to play this move.
I recovered two sleeves on the shirt I lost earlier this year. Main PF up 30% in last week. And added some super quality stocks to the PF which I will simply sit on and ride, ride, ride.
Have to admit that when I saw JNUG go screaming past 83 on the RSI and a huge gap, I lost my nerve and sold out for a 150% gain on my calls.
Last time I had this much fun it was back when the 2000 were in single digits. Man, remembering some good lessons from those times.
Missed a couple I should have caught, but one cannot be perfect.
And I’ve managed to set aside 20% in cash for the correction when – not if – it comes. This time, I am ready. Any more upside and I’ll likely clear out all my calls and wait for a downturn to do it again.
Thanks for Rambus, this forum, and of course, Plunger. Still holding calls – a bunch – on SAND. One day that baby is gonna break out and buy me a new car….
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention a certain Spock holding I’ve been suffering with for years. In the last two weeks that thing came to life, blew buy my buy price, and now I am in the black. What the heck? Sold half and now waiting to see if it’s for real.
Hope I’m not the only one having fun.
Best plays for me so far: AG, JNUG, and WPM
RSI(34) on daily chart at 71, or RSI(14) at 83.6 does look on the high side, sooner or later we will have a correction I guess. In 2016 the same happened, and bull continued afterwards.
Thanks SB for the insights. Yes, as I’ve said, many of Spock’s rocks have done really well, going up many % points. Some today 5-13%.
I’ve trusted his picks and have hung in there. If we get back to what his picks did at the end of ’16, it will be great. I was up 100%.
Spock is both a contributor and sponsor of this site….Take it for what it’s worth…..Steins
1. First, I don’t want to get carried away. In fact I hope and expect the rally stops and backs off a bit, and expect that as usual some of my apparent clever moves will prove stupid. Any confidence on my part is a horrible sign. Nevertheless–
2. I haven’t broken down Spock vs non-spock holdings. However one of the things that made me relatively confident in the market–and made me wish this rally had not started so early–is that I followed daily my own little index (similar to what I think Steins1 has) composed significantly of the tiny tinies for about the past 8 months. I had watched it inch up since last summer. I haven’t calculated the percentage, but perhaps 10% even as many people were complaining how horrible gold and the PM stocks were doing. Some were doing just horribly, but some individual charts tended to curve upwards. I took money from the former (and a little from the outside) and put into the latter. So far it worked. It did seem visible both in the individual charts and in the overall price movement.
3. As with silverboom, I noted that 1 Spock stock. It was one of the ones with a chart that looked nice to me. I was fortunate enough to put particularly emphasize by buying more of it stages over the past months–unfortunately not enough. Ditto for one Otto at IKN (whose work I subscribe to and find useful) recommends and 1 or 2 others. As with my disclaimer, above, #1, I may regret these moves, and I scare myself by suggesting success, but it really looked as if the rally was being telegraphing by cumulative price movements of selected stocks (not the averages) and by individual charts (such as the Spock one, which may pay for all the Spock subscription fees of past years many times over, despite the gruesome losses or other problems elsewhere).
As usual, please forgive the typos. I make so many mistakes!
This Rally already has some legs to stand on so don’t expect any easy entries for some time. Everyone should have a seat on the bus by now and if you don’t get one soon…
https://surfcity.co/2019/06/19/gold-the-usd-midweek-update-4/
Silverboom – why wouldn’t you be a naysayer? PM was in a bear market. Those may people who were ‘predicting’ a bull market have been doing so for a long time. Had you put your money down a year ago or even 6 months ago (as was wrongly predicted) you may have lost a lot too.
That is why I like Cycles as it allows you to calibrate your investments in 6-month increments, or the length of most Intermediate Cycles. Buy at a 6 month ICL, try to get out near the top and re-evaluate that market at the next ICL. Fewer positions to manage and no extra baggage to hold on to once a cycle has topped.