Goldtent TA Paradise

Stretched ?

1. JSKauai says:

   August 19, 2018 - 4:17 pm at 4:17 pm

   Northstar, do you know what Hedge funds position in copper and silver? Is it also as extreme as for gold?

2. Mserr says:

   August 19, 2018 - 8:02 pm at 8:02 pm

   I don’t have those but…

   Treasury bond record shorts
   Dollar record or near record longs

   And record shorts in 96 stayed record for 4 years
   I think.

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     August 19, 2018 - 11:39 pm at 11:39 pm

     Sir Msser….your last point is exactly ….4 years before it mattered

     These COT readings are a pariah !

     • BooBooMan says:

       August 19, 2018 - 11:55 pm at 11:55 pm

       Fully,

       They are useful, but one cannot ignore the backdrop. In 2002 the US was ramping up the “War on Terror” and everyone with any knowledge of history knows that wars are inflationary. The S & P 500 was in a confirmed Bear Market having dropped 41% in two years. I don’t see anything similar to today’s backdrop, certainly not the direction of short-term treasury and Fed Funds rates.

       Now this doesn’t make the COTs useless, but it does change the reasonable expectation as to just how “bullish” they setup the gold market: NOT VERY. While the present COT positions provide a backdrop where it’s easier for some sudden “funnymental” (trade deal with China?) to set off a brisk short-covering rally, it’s almost certainly to be limited in scope and duration. Probably the MOST we could expect would be a rally back to about $1,290 – $1,320.

       At that point (assuming we get that high) if the Dollar isn’t heading south with a vengeance, I’d be selling the hell out of Comex against my physical holdings.

       • Fullgoldcrown says:

         August 20, 2018 - 12:15 am at 12:15 am

         Sharp Boo

3. norvast says:

   August 20, 2018 - 5:55 am at 5:55 am

   I want to add some time counts here for everyone…

   All dates are based on expected turn dates 21 Aug and 28 Aug

   Swiss Franc CHF
   Next week is week 15
   Last DCL 13 July
   21 Aug is calendar day 39
   28 Aug is calendar day 46

   CHF moving into a DCL which we would expect sometime around calendar day 47 or 29 Aug

   The daily cycle will be left translated – not a good sign for gold moving forward

   Australian Dollar AUD
   Next week is week 37
   Last DCL 02 July
   21 Aug is calendar day 50
   28 Aug is calendar day 57

   AUD moving into an ICL/YCL which we would expect sometime around calendar day 55 or 26 Aug

   The daily cycle will be left translated and failed

   Australian Dollar AUD
   Next week is week 37
   Last DCL 02 July
   21 Aug is calendar day 50
   28 Aug is calendar day 57

   AUD moving into an ICL/YCL which we would expect sometime around calendar day 55 or 26 Aug

   The daily cycle will be left translated and failed

   US Dollar USD
   Next week is week 27
   Last DCL 09 July
   21 Aug is calendar day 43
   28 Aug is calendar day 50

   USD moving into a DCL which we would expect sometime around calendar day 47-55 or 25 Aug to 03 Sep

   The daily cycle will be right translated. A left translated failed daily cycle is required to mark the ICL so we expect the USD to move into another daily cycle once the DCL is printed.

   Gold GCY00
   Next week is week 36
   Last DCL 03 July
   21 Aug is calendar day 49
   28 Aug is calendar day 56

   USD moving into an ICL/YCL which we would expect sometime around calendar day 55+ or 28 Aug to 03 Sep as we know gold daily cycles leading into a YCL are historically long & drawn out affairs

   The daily cycle will be left translated.

   The issue for gold forward is that any advance will eventually be curtailed by the new weekly cycle in the USD

   The next weekly cycle for gold could be short as 36 weeks is historically long and often long cycles are balanced by short cycle.

   Northern Star Resources NST.AX
   Last DCL 20 Jul
   21 Aug is calendar day 32
   28 Aug is calendar day 39

   NST moving lower into a DCL after a short bounce early this week
   I would not expect it to host a DCL before 42 calendar days = early Sep

   IMO we are about to see a bounce for gold followed by a another move lower into an ICL/YCL late Aug-early Sep

   The issue for gold forward is that any advance will eventually be curtailed by the new weekly cycle in the USD

   The next weekly cycle for gold could be short as 36 weeks is historically long and often long cycles are balanced by short cycle.