Goldtent TA Paradise

A Very Unpopular View

1. Music Man says:

   August 16, 2018 - 6:32 pm at 6:32 pm

   I’m rootin’ for ya, kid ;o

   • Enilder says:

     August 16, 2018 - 7:35 pm at 7:35 pm

     +1. Go Northstar! Go PM stocks!

2. Mamare says:

   August 16, 2018 - 6:48 pm at 6:48 pm

   A bounce at around 1300 is possible….. a break above that level with the consequent validation of the inverse H&S would make me stay in a church to pray for a week.

   • Steins1 says:

     August 16, 2018 - 7:17 pm at 7:17 pm

     LOL! Pray for a week!? Hell, I’ve been praying for the last five years!

   • Music Man says:

     August 16, 2018 - 8:35 pm at 8:35 pm

     Aren’t most mainline churches mostly “closed” now? As would fit the times we are living in, it seems that gaining admittance to a “church” today would mark you as a gold bug or other kind of the crazy.
     Best to pray at home where you might not be shot ;o

3. Mserr says:

   August 16, 2018 - 7:30 pm at 7:30 pm

   I ve prayed
   i have picked up lucky pennies
   Won’t walk under ladders.
   Won’t vacuum after sundown
   Prayed to the patron saint of money so many times
   Have hundreds of dollars under statues of saints if not thousands under Virgin Mary
   Won’t let black cats cross my path
   It’s over gold is the devil and has won.

   • Steins1 says:

     August 16, 2018 - 7:48 pm at 7:48 pm

     Let’s look at it this way. If we would have walked outside several years ago with a pick and shovel and stared digging for gold instead of waiting for it to go up, we wouldn’t be any worse off!
     You never know, we might have struck it rich…..or hit a natural gas line and blown ourselves up!

4. Fullgoldcrown says:

   August 16, 2018 - 9:06 pm at 9:06 pm

   LOLOLOL guys

   🙂

   PS…that’s a great chart

   If it works…I wish we all could have seen this drop to symmetry coming 3 to 6 months ago and everyone could have cashed up and waited for today

5. Northstar says:

   August 17, 2018 - 5:45 am at 5:45 am

   This looks/feels like a major cyclical low to me. The last yearly cycle low felt like this back in late 2016. The current bottoming process (if that’s what it is) needs to pretty much destroy sentiment. If it doesn’t, it’s unlikely to be the major turning point we’re looking for. The dollar is what’s troubling me at this point. It’s behaviour is far stronger than I expected, and is beginning to make me wonder if this 15 year cycle might end up being right translated. If that’s the case, we have much longer to go with pressure on PM’s. That could open up the prospects of gold falling below $1000, negating the entire bull market thesis, and putting us back into very long term bear market conditions. I don’t expect that, but I do consider it a low probability outcome (i.e. not impossible).

6. Alex33 says:

   August 17, 2018 - 6:47 am at 6:47 am

   What strikes me the most is that RSI on weekly charts is very low, as low as in previous bear markets (2013) and far lower than during the bull market 2001-2011. Normally during interim corrections Weekly RSI should not be that low. Even during 2008 correction RSI was far higher.This is nor a good sign for a continuing bull market and clearly shows we are in bear market and any rallies must be sold. I do not believe we will have a repeat of 2016 any time soon.

7. norvast says:

   August 17, 2018 - 8:31 am at 8:31 am

   Moves into a YCL are often drawn out affairs.

   Today (17 Aug) is calendar day 45 from the 03 Jul DCL

   Based on previous moves into a YCL we could be still 10+ calendar days from a bottom which will probably occur when the USD hosts a DCL (around 28 Aug)

   The USD will be on calendar day 50 on 28 Aug

   The AUD will be on calendar day 57 on 28 Aug

   More pain to come….

8. norvast says:

   August 17, 2018 - 8:40 am at 8:40 am

   Correction to above comments…

   Once the USD hosts a DCL it should then complete one more left translated daily cycle.

   So gold may not host a YCL until the USD hosts a DCH in the next daily cycle.

   That could be some days away.

9. Northstar says:

   August 17, 2018 - 8:50 am at 8:50 am

   Whoopee. Thanks Norvast. Just when I was starting to feel some optimism. More pain for gold will well and truly break all of the chart patterns involving a rounded bottom formation. Long term support would also be well and truly destroyed. From a chartology point of view, a return to $1050 would be very likely, giving us a double bottom (if that even is THE bottom). If $1050 is broken to the downside, we can kiss goodbye to all talk of a new bull market in gold. Any hopes that the 15 year cycle is still working would be blown out of the water, as we’d be making new lows just when the low should be years behind us.

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     August 17, 2018 - 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm

     “When you’re going thru hell…KEEP GOING”

     I believe one of your own said that Northstar. 🙂

     Firm upper lip and all that

10. Alex33 says:

    August 17, 2018 - 9:34 am at 9:34 am

    Thanks Norvast, but confusing, as previously you posted different outcome, or was that specific for NST and not gold?

    take a look at NST.AX
    The current half cycle correction should end soon with a HCL
    Then it will bounce and host a DCH around calendar day 34 or 23 Aug
    It will then move lower into a DCL around calendar day 47-55 or 05-13 Sep

    • norvast says:

      August 17, 2018 - 5:46 pm at 5:46 pm

      Yes Alex33 a bit confusing but NST.AX dropped considerably lower yesterday and way past a normal half cycle correction so I have has to reconsider my previous comments.

      It depends greatly on when the USD firstly finds a DCL in this current daily cycle, then when it hosts a DCH in the next (which we expect to be left translated)

      There is no doubt that gold and NST will bounce here but eventually (once the USD moves higher out of a DCL) in a few days time they will again turn down.

      If the USD is strong at the start of that next daily cycle we may see gold and miners move lower than their current values.

      My larger concern is when the USD commences the next WEEKLY cycle where the first two daily cycles at least should be reasonably strong.

      Back to NST.AX

      It is too early for it to now host a DCL so after it bounces it, like gold, will move lower into a DCL. The earliest I suspect that will be is late Aug-early Sep.

      I hope this helps, but yes I did get it wrong with NST.AX

11. norvast says:

    August 18, 2018 - 9:16 am at 9:16 am

    I would like to make it quite clear that I expect the USD to host a DCL between 42-47 calendar days from the last DCL on 09 Jul

    That means that mid next week we can expect the USD host a DCL and commence it’s next daily cycle which I expect to be left translated and fail.

    However until it hosts a DCH then gold and the AUD will fall.

    Mid next week say 22 Aug will be calendar day 50 for gold and we know that the moves into a YCL can be long drawn out affairs anything up to 63 calendar days.

    Meanwhile mid next week will only be calendar day 40 for the Swiss Franc which is no moving lower into a DCL

    So in summary I do not expect gold to host a YCL, AUD a YCL and CHF a DCL and the USD a DCH until late Aug-early Sep