Mischief with Fully’s 20m ema chart bull/bear on gold.
Having a little fun with Fully’s chart on the almost foolproof 20 month exponential moving average gold bull/bear buy/sell indicator, I noticed two possible sets of twins for the bear case. I am not sure which is worse:
I’ve also been following this indicator since it was posted. In simple terms what the charts are saying is that the next 2 months will be critical. I’ll keep watching.
this is typical near lows. the projections are to the downside.
I hope so Spocky.
Anyway I am a Brit and gold is nowhere near any kind of low in British pounds! It is still over 1000 GBP spot price. In fact it is near £1020. Right now I couldn’t care less about the dollar gold price but it is still prudent always to look at downside targets as well as upside ones.
Put in perspective gold is 5x its year 2000 price in pounds. An agency temp could have bought a Krugerrand easily with a week’s wages back then and now it would cost them more than a month pittance for grafting in some warehouse, picking and packing. That means in a sense that low wage workers were earning five times more back in 2000 than they are now.
I was looking for a selloff once the September non-rate hike came (or didn’t come) and gold gave a fairly tepid upside response with no follow through. It was top heavy for the time being. That doesn’t really bother me. However I don’t doubt that the upside in gold prices in any Western currency will be spectacular, if one lives long enough.
More seriously I am wondering is $1170 or $1100 are possible downside targets. They would still be in the bull trend channels that has been posted here numerous times. I just wanted to have a bit of mischief with Fully’s chart.
I am adding this on 1 December 2016:
Gold was $1251 on 10 October. Now it’s $1164, to be kind. That’s nearly $90 lower. The downside projections are working out. Now Avi has said more or less the bottom is in on 1 Dec. This remains to be seen.