- WMO expects Pacific sea surface anomalies above 2.9C through August-October and a November peak, which would make this the strongest El Niño in the modern record.
- The mild-winter relief traders are pricing doesn’t close Europe’s LNG gap. Rystad still has the region needing roughly 15 million tonnes more year-on-year through June 2027.
- The real damage is on the supply side: hydropower, solar output, reactor cooling and Panama Canal drafts, all hitting a system Hormuz has already stripped of slack.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Strongest-El-Nio-on-Record-Lands-on-the-Tightest-Energy-Market-in-Years.html