Will the Diesel Crisis Decide the 2026 Elections? – Martin Armstrong – Armstrong Economics
The computer forecast is not calling for a Democratic landslide. The most likely outcome remains that Democrats take the House while Republicans retain the Senate, although four political models show a solid Republican victory and one places that probability above 70%. That divergence reveals how unstable the political environment has become. Republicans may survive if energy prices retreat and the war moves toward a credible settlement. If diesel remains near record levels into the autumn, the Iran war will become a domestic economic referendum and the narrow House majority will be the first casualty.
While this isn’t new, it’s packaged together well – we’ve been all over each issue at the tent for months. Two weeks ago, the oil industry speculated that reserves of diesel and jet fuel would be dangerously low towards the end of August (posted here) — both Russia and China say they have ceased export of Diesel fuel internationally. US refineries are already running at “above peak” production levels. 74 days and counting down — its going to be interesting!
This is a bit more than interesting, it’s nightmarish.