Loading ...Cushing Stocks Crash To ‘Tank Bottoms’, Seasonally Lowest Since 2005; SPR Sees Another Huge Drain
…lowest absolute level since Oct 2014 and lowest for time of year since 2005…
“The collapse in oil has changed the tone of global markets, supporting bonds (prices) and reducing near-term inflation pressure,”
Crude inventories held by OECD member countries fell in May to the lowest level since 1990 as governments drew down stocks to offset the blockage of Gulf crude shipments during the Middle East war, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.
Am guessing it is safe to predict that gasoline prices will now stay below $4/gallon until the US 250th Anniversary celebrations end after July 4 Independence Day.
via Dive
In the Oil Industry, there is an important measure of Oil referred-to as “Cushing.” It refers to a small town in Oklahoma. Cushing, OK is the “pipeline crossroads of the world.”
It’s where pretty much ALL the oil pipelines in the U.S. converge into a massive “tank farm” of large storage tanks. Those tanks can hold ninety-million barrels of oil.
From Cushing, the oil then gets routed via other pipelines, to Refineries throughout the country.
The typical operational level of Cushing in 75-78 Million barrels in the tanks at any given time. Today, Cushing has slightly higher than twenty million barrels – and THAT is a major problem.
You see, oil is very thick. In order to be pushed through the pipelines, there has to be sufficient weight of other oil in the storage tanks. The weight pushes the oil into the pipelines, and pumps then push it to refineries. That’s why the storage tanks have “Floating tops” to weigh down the oil somewhat. As the level of oil in the tanks drops, the floating tops sink lower. Take a look at the tank tops in the photo below; the tanks are emptying:
In order for the whole system to operate, there has to be about twenty million barrels of oil in the Cushing tanks. We are about to breach that level.
This morning, I was told “June 22 is the date Cushing falls below its operational minimum; lower than 20 million barrels.” June 22 is this coming Monday, seven days from now.
When Cushing stops operating, refineries will cease receiving crude oil to refine. Now, maybe those refineries have some on-site storage themselves; I don’t know. Even if they do, it likely isn’t much.
At some point soon after June 22, SOME refineries may have to shut down. No more production of Gasoline, Diesel Fuel, Aviation fuel, Bunker Fuel (for ocean-going ships). When that happens, the region served by the refinery will then have to begin using whatever Reserve Refined Products it has.
The New York City fuel reserve is 45 days of gasoline. Not sure if it’s the same for Diesel, Aviation, or Bunker fuels. But one thing is certain, the 45 day reserve for New York City and New Jersey is presently the largest reserve in the country. All other regions have less than that.
So as many people celebrate the “Agreement” between the US and Iran, o re-open the Strait of Hormuz, Iran said today, the Strait will not re-open until at least this coming Friday (to make certain Israel honors to ceasefire in Lebanon.)
It takes 35 days for an oil tanker ship to travel from the Middle East to the US West Coast.
It takes 45 days for an oil tanker ship to travel from the Middle East to the US GULF Coast
It takes 55 days for an oil tanker to travel from the Middle East to the US East Coast.
Once those tankers arrive and begin off-loading, it takes a week to refine the fuel, then another week to distribute it to regional distribution systems, then another week to truck it out to gas stations.
See the problem?
The gap between when the oil arrives, and when it gets to gas stations is such that our Reserves will NOT cover the gap. Parts of this country are going to run dry of fuel.
Which parts and for how long, I don’t know. Will there be fuel Rationing? I don’t know. I think it’s possible – even likely. For how long, I don’t know.
YOU would do well to make certain you have cans of gasoline stored in a lawful, safe, manner, so YOU have fuel. Oh, be sure to NOT TELL ANYONE because they will do nothing for themselves, except remember they can get some from YOU.
Time is running out.
For what it;’s worth, The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has just fallen to its lowest level since August 1983- 340.3mb. That’s a 42 yr low. No matter where you stand politically, it’s a remarkable statistic: America’s emergency oil stockpile hasn’t been this depleted since the Reagan era.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/component/content/article/got-word-cushing-empty-by-next-monday-june-22?catid=20&Itemid=101
pedro – thank you!!
This clarifies the situation immensely and explains the commentary now being used repeatedly about July shortages.
The story is well written and logical, however, the “issue” I have is that it came from Hal Turner’s radio show which is a red flag for me personally — a bias developed over the years!
Do you happen to know more re: “DIVE(?)” and whether they have expertise in this market?
Trump Admits US Was Weeks Away From “Running Out Of Reserves” When Iran Deal Struck
“We run out of reserves in about four weeks.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/read-14-point-us-iran-draft-deal-set-friday-signing
This comes close to matching the 1st comment above……….