Goldtent TA Paradise

BONDS

1. Paul says:

   May 29, 2019 - 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm

   The Fed is losing control of US monetary policy, ie. its central mandate:

   1. Listen to this (10 mins):
   Fed Funds rate moving stubbornly over IOER is a clear sign that the Fed will soon be forced to supply more dollar liquidity, a bearish sign given current sentiment extremes
   https://www.macrovoices.com/110-macro-voices-all-stars/576-all-stars-luke-gromen-2
   2. Read this (10 mins):
   Irony of Ironies – It’s Been Federal Funds Leading the Bond Yield Plunge The Whole Way
   https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2019/05/28/irony-of-ironies-its-been-federal-funds-leading-the-bond-yield-plunge-the-whole-way/

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     May 29, 2019 - 1:45 pm at 1:45 pm

     Tanks Paul….very interesting

2. pedro_deleon says:

   May 29, 2019 - 3:01 pm at 3:01 pm

   … this is the story Jeff Snyder has been talking.

   but to me, its not clear WHO will supply the needed dollar liquidity.
   It needn’t be the Fed. China has been performing this function for a decade, relatively speaking. YES … US DOLLAR liquidity. Again, see Snyder’s work.

   And see the L1 chart here
   https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmF582.jpg?itok=eocrardW

   Its a GLOBAL $ total. And the volatility is likely due to Chinese events.

3. Paul says:

   May 29, 2019 - 6:08 pm at 6:08 pm

   Thanks PD,
   Indeed Jeffrey Snider has been all over the Euro-Dollar (offshore credit-money) problem for years.
   And he’s been warning about the most recent Euro-Dollar problem (#4) since 29 May 2018.
   He’s posted again today… in disgust at the Fed’s ignorance:
   https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2019/05/29/may-29-one-year-later-no-longer-risks/
   What I found so interesting about the Luke Gromen interview above, is Gromen’s opinion that the offshore Euro-Dollar problem has finally come home to the US-Dollar onshore regime (ie. the Fed’s bailwick).
   What might this mean for gold….
   In Jeffrey Snider’s model, gold acts in three broad ways according to the Euro-Dollar cycle : Reflation (Gold Up): Collateral (Gold Down – “Collateral of Last Resort”): Fear (Gold Up):
   https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2019/02/01/fear-or-reflation-gold/ … and
   https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/10/23/three-stages-of-gold/ .
   IMO, Gold is experiencing both Collateral and Fear trades. I think there’s a 50-50 likelihood that Gold will experience some waterfall declines in the coming weeks as the key yield curve inversions STEEPEN, huge bond positions are caught offside, and central banks lend physical Gold to big players as Collateral of Last Resort. Indeed the 13 week EMA is about to cross the 34 EMA to the downside.
   But overall the Fear trade will be the stronger force.
   Jordan R-B’s ‘Fed Cut Catalyst’ is key for timing the reversal. June 19th is the next Fed meet.
   I wouldn’t be surprised to see $Gold touch the rising support line from the 2015-16 low, at about 1240 USD. It could even go as low as 1190 USD and Northstar’s parabola would still be intact – but that would be a wall of worry.
   In any event, when it comes (this summer or autumn) the reversal will likely be even stronger than the early 2016 bull.
   Hang on in there !!
   Peace, success out: P

   • pedro_deleon says:

     May 29, 2019 - 7:47 pm at 7:47 pm

     Appreciate the elaboration … had not caught JS’ views on the gold model. I like it.

     “In any event, when it comes (this summer or autumn) the reversal will likely be even stronger than the early 2016 bull.”

     That’s Sam’s view per his EW Count.
     I’ll post it as we get nearer to his call for when that turn should be.
     Assuming it lines up with mine.

     • Paul says:

       May 29, 2019 - 9:10 pm at 9:10 pm

       The red and green candles on $GOLD HEIKIN-ASHI WEEKLY charts correspond very well to Jeffrey Snider’s “Three Phases of Gold Model”: Reflation (Gold Up): Collateral (Gold Down – “Collateral of Last Resort”): Fear (Gold Up).
       Good luck: P