Goldtent TA Paradise

TLT-GLD Ratio Charts

1. red label says:

   November 25, 2017 - 3:12 pm at 3:12 pm

   Inverse correlation is impressive. Similar to the correlation scenario as Gold/Yen.

   I often wonder tho how much weight these correlations have on the markets. I compare the Gold/Yen correlation to a bird looking into a mirror. The bird thinks the image has it’s own existence but without the bird the image would not exist. It’s the bird that is the tangible object not the reflection in the mirror. IMO the Yen is a reactive force not a driver.

   Therefore the debate would obviously be does the TLT/GLD drive the markets or is it a reflection?

   • JenkinsLane says:

     November 25, 2017 - 3:17 pm at 3:17 pm

     No idea, just another clue in terms of my approach.

     I’ve yet to read *any* explanation of why the Yen correlates with gold. Whoever knows, ain’t saying.

     • red label says:

       November 25, 2017 - 5:21 pm at 5:21 pm

       I enjoy your posts JL. Just wondering what your thoughts were with the TLT:GLD ratio. I think it’s a reflection when you involve the GLD. But I do think the TLT is a market driver. What are your predictions with the TLT:GLD?

       • pedro_deleon says:

         November 25, 2017 - 5:49 pm at 5:49 pm

         I see these relationships in my work as well.
         Generally, gold like lower REAL rates. Low nominal rates are nice, but that’s not enough if inflation is negative (= high real rates). If rates are low and inflation is on the rise, gold does well. That is, when rates are slow to react.

         Right now those, all these factors and the $ are not adding up to what I see in the PM sector. There’s a tug of war going on. Yen is up, $ is falling, and yields are falling. But neither gold nor the miners can sustain an advance.

       • JenkinsLane says:

         November 25, 2017 - 6:04 pm at 6:04 pm

         I think it rises over the next few weeks and drops hard in H1 2018. It terms of TLT, I think it will rally back up towards 140 in 2018.

         If you filter out the noise on the weekly chart, what type of pattern can you see?

       • JenkinsLane says:

         November 25, 2017 - 6:04 pm at 6:04 pm

         Also, thanks for the compliment.

     • Fullgoldcrown says:

       November 25, 2017 - 5:51 pm at 5:51 pm

       Agree…on the surface the Yen Gold strong corelation makes Zero sense. And no one even tries to explain it .

       Hmmmm.. what if Red Label is right about the manipulation but instead of the algorithm pegging Gold to the

       Dollar…it is pegged to the Yen.

       Red….do the math and let us know what you think

       This could be THE explanation for the odd Couple ….

       PS…in this case the Gold : Yen Price will not vary much…Maybe we should watch Gold in Yen for clues…If it rises maybe something is up