Goldtent TA Paradise

Deutsche Bank

1. BobbyC says:

   June 30, 2016 - 4:09 pm at 4:09 pm

   And yet not a single comment on a probable event that threatens the entire financial system! I saw a chart that indeed suggested the share price of DB is tracking very closely the price of Lehman back in 2008. DB is several degrees more important than Lehman.

   We are living in ‘interesting times’ per the Chinese curse.

   • JenkinsLane says:

     June 30, 2016 - 4:36 pm at 4:36 pm

     Jim Rickards said LTCM needed a $4b bailout to unwind LTCM’s derivatives book of ~ $1T, so if DB’s derivatives book is $60T-$70T and you use the same ratio,
     that would imply a bailout of $240b to $280b. The German government/taxpayers could cover it but it would definitely mean the fall of the German government,
     which in turn could have further massive implications in terms of financial markets.

     • Carolynsue says:

       June 30, 2016 - 5:16 pm at 5:16 pm

       Unbelievable!—I remember the LTCM blow up and to think that its Derivative Book was only a tiny fraction of what DB’s is—Martin Armstrong keeps mentioning the rush to private assets like gold and silver, among others, and I would think a catastrophe of that magnitude in the banking sector would light a fire under the PM

       • Carolynsue says:

         June 30, 2016 - 5:23 pm at 5:23 pm

         Back in 2013 ZH said that Deutsch’s $75 Trillion in derivatives exposure was 20 times greater than German GDP…EU GDP was about $13 Trillion

         • JenkinsLane says:

           June 30, 2016 - 5:39 pm at 5:39 pm

           If LTCM’s experience applies to DB, then the sum needed to unwind the derivatives book, even at $70T, would be ~$280 billion. Hell, Germany could issue bonds to cover the cost and Mario Draghi at the ECB would buy them with freshly (digitally) printed Euros. The question is what happens to markets if and when this is all happening because TPTB won’t be able to fix DB in an hour.

2. EagleSeagle says:

   July 1, 2016 - 5:53 am at 5:53 am

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2PAPqHw7jw
   Jim Willie states China may be using Deutsche Bank as leverage on the western banking system. In exchange for this control, China agrees not to dump Treasury bonds. Not sure the credibility of Jim nor history of his predictions, but this scenario certainly seems plausible.

   • JenkinsLane says:

     July 1, 2016 - 1:41 pm at 1:41 pm

     I would say “uncredible”. Never read his stuff.