Goldtent TA Paradise

USD Intermediate Cycle update

1. norvast says:

   March 17, 2016 - 7:13 pm at 7:13 pm

   Surf City

   Well worth mentioning here the 7 year cycles that run through the USD, gold and other commodities.

   Look at some highs in the USD over the last few years…

   Q1 1994
   Q3 2001
   Q1 2009
   Q4 2015

   and look at what has happened to the USD and gold immediately following those highs, in particularly the last high in 2009 (as the timing bands are remarkably close)

   If we can manage to work our way through the next difficult trading cycle (as USD turns up and gold turns down) we will be presented with a remarkable opportunity in gold and other commodities.

   Since 11 Feb 2016 the USD has spent 20 calendar days rising and 15 calendar days falling making a neat 3/4/5 Fibonacci triangle

   Probably time to turn up!

   I should add (for members new to our work) that Surf City uses trading days and I use calendar days.

   I have found that most of the cycles LOW-HIGH-LOW form triangles in Fibonacci/Lucas ratios.

   In terms of gold I also use Seasonal dates and Fibonacci Spiral time counts from important turn dates (square root of Fibonacci number x Lunar Month or 29.5 calendar days)

   Both triangulation and time counts assist in determining turn dates within the BRESSERT cycle analysis (very important)

   • Surf City says:

     March 18, 2016 - 2:30 am at 2:30 am

     Norvast, Good stuff as always.

2. DaveintheUK says:

   March 18, 2016 - 7:52 am at 7:52 am

   Very difficult to understand exactly what is going on right now. So many conflicting signals.

   I like these charts. Do you think the dollar will get to the median line on your pitchfork at 93.5 on this cycle? it has turned up this morning to 95.02, with gold dropping a little again.

   Gold made a reversal upwards on the Fed announcement but there was no follow through to the upside at all, just a 4 hour rally and then a damp squib. Reminds me a bit of the taper talk / no taper talk in late 2013 where gold made a spike higher to resistance at around $1365 and spent weeks going down afterwards to $1251.

   Not that I expect that to happen but looks like gold wasn’t quite ready to have its next upleg even with dovish Fed meeting.

   The outperformance by silver has been very noticeable, perhaps because inflationary expectations have now come into play. Also, gold:silver has broken down as per Peppermint Patty / Fullgoldcrown’s GLD:SLV Ratio chart in the post from 17 March 2016 at 12:50pm.

   Gold:oil has now erased its breakout above the 30 region (it went to 46) and is back at the 30 level. Wonder if it will go back into its old trading range of 6 to 30-ish or if it just a backtest of 30 as support?

   That means ‘real price of gold’ would not be falling. Gold:CRB has been in a downtrend since February, trimming the supposed profits for gold mining. Personally, I think the USD price of gold is much more important than any ratio so with the USD price up, it is still better than before in my view. One thing goldbugs will not want is static gold price here and skyrocketing commodities:

   http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$CRB&p=M&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84715185119&a=422997387&listNum=1

   • DaveintheUK says:

     March 18, 2016 - 7:53 am at 7:53 am

     I meant real price of gold IS falling!