{"id":693191,"date":"2026-03-22T14:21:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-22T18:21:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/?p=693191"},"modified":"2026-03-22T14:21:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T18:21:16","slug":"what-do-bonds-know-that-the-stock-market-doesnt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/?p=693191","title":{"rendered":"What Do Bonds Know That The Stock Market Doesn&#8217;t?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Most investors spend their time watching the S&amp;P 500. That\u2019s a mistake, because the credit market is the real<em>\u00a0\u201ctell.\u201d<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0The bond market has been whispering a warning for weeks now, and credit spreads are now shouting it. As of this writing, the CDX Index, a benchmark measure of credit default swap spreads, has climbed to a nine-month high while the S&amp;P 500 sits within 5% of its all-time peak. Over the past 20 years, every time that combination appeared, a bear market followed.\u00a0<strong>Every single time.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The chart from Sentiment Trader below tells the story as clearly as any amount of prose could. The top panel tracks the S&amp;P 500 since 2007. The middle panel shows the CDX Index of credit default swaps. The bottom panel shows where those spreads stand relative to their 189-bar range, essentially a percentile reading of how elevated they are relative to recent history.\u00a0(<em>Red markers indicate instances where CDX spreads hit 9-month highs\u00a0<\/em><em>while the S&amp;P 500 is within 5% of its high.)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/what-do-bonds-know-stock-market-doesnt\">https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/what-do-bonds-know-stock-market-doesnt<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most investors spend their time watching the S&amp;P 500. That\u2019s a mistake, because the credit market is the real\u00a0\u201ctell.\u201d\u00a0The bond market has been whispering a warning for weeks now, and credit spreads are now shouting it. As of this writing, &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/?p=693191\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2948,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-693191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/693191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2948"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=693191"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/693191\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":693195,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/693191\/revisions\/693195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=693191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=693191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=693191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}