We\u2019re moving into active rationing, emergency allocation, and crisis management across most countries outside the US.
\nThe damage to the global economy at this stage is no longer theoretical, it\u2019s structural.
\nNext comes second-order effects.
\nFertilizers, chemicals, plastics, transport inputs, all tied directly to oil.
\nAgriculture gets hit with a lag…Lower yields. Higher input costs. Tightening food supply.
\nThat\u2019s when it stops being an energy crisis and turns into a full inflationary cycle with social consequences.<\/p>\n
This doesn\u2019t resolve quickly.<\/p>\n
Even if flows normalize, inventories are depleted, supply chains are dislocated, and pricing psychology has shifted.
\nOnce you trigger rationing behavior, hoarding, and government intervention, you\u2019ve already crossed into a different regime.
\nWe already heard that it would take 6 months+ to regain full output levels from the gulf. Escalation is putting almost all allies in check.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/x.com\/TheShortBear\/status\/2035080506430177366<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" We\u2019re moving into active rationing, emergency allocation, and crisis management across most countries outside the US. The damage to the global economy at this stage is no longer theoretical, it\u2019s structural. Next comes second-order effects. Fertilizers, chemicals, plastics, transport inputs, … Continue reading