Post Bubble contraction effect on the financial market explained with lesson in History. <\/p>\n
Bob Hoye is financial historian. <\/p>\n
Indicators he follows have been shared here multiple times.
\n3 months Treasury bill rate
\nCredit spread
\nYield curves<\/p>\n
“Beyond these technical measures, warning events included that the Yield Curve inverted
\nin the summer whereby short rates trade higher than long rates. This is typical of the
\nculmination of any boom and the record back to 1857 is that every inversion has been
\nfollowed by a recession. Beyond this, the curve inverted again in January. The double
\ninversion occurred in 2007 as well as in the 1929 and 1873 Bubbles”..<\/p>\n
“Credit spreads which is the difference between high-grade and low-grade bonds have
\nreversed to widening. Which also signals the end of the boom.
\nIt is worth noting that while most think that Fed can keep a boom going by cleverly timed
\ncuts to the Fed rate, there is no example of success. Success would be a record of no
\nrecessions. And the concept is ironical. Treasury Bill rates increase in a boom and record
\nthe fastest declines during a financial crisis.”<\/p>\n
“Another feature of the transition from boom to contraction includes the action in
\nindustrial commodities. Up in the boom and down in the bust. Base metals set their
\nrecent high on January 16th and have declined by 12 percent. Crude became overbought
\nin setting the high at $65.65 on January 8th and has crashed 50 percent to $32. Our
\nFebruary 13th publication noted our targets of $37 and $26”<\/p>\n
“These plunges are marking the transition to contraction and going the other way gold\u2019s
\nprice reverses to increasing in the post-bubble world. From the low of $1167 in 2018,
\ngold has rallied 46 percent to $1702. Also Treasury Bills decline. For the 3-month the
\nhigh yield was 2.49% a year ago in March. Now it is at 0.29%”<\/p>\n
http:\/\/www.321gold.com\/editorials\/hoye\/hoye031520.pdf<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Post Bubble contraction effect on the financial market explained with lesson in History. Bob Hoye is financial historian. Indicators he follows have been shared here multiple times. 3 months Treasury bill rate Credit spread Yield curves “Beyond these technical measures, … Continue reading