Which way ? I like Avocados chart. It keeps me alert to the possibility of a huge dollar rally. What stops me from thinking this is the most likely outcome is time.\u00a0 We’re running out of it. Everything else seems to be pointing to a breakdown. The megaphone pattern is very significant. It tells us the market is very unsure. It’s most common at major, cyclical tops or bottoms. A top or a bottom can be ‘V’ shaped or it can be a long, drawn out topping\/bottoming process. To help decide whether we’re forming a top, or a base to launch from, I’d say that the time factor is key. Where are we in terms of the larger cycles ? Are we approaching a major cyclical top, or should we be turning down ? Gold looks to have formed a massive, and I mean MASSIVE 5 year base. A move above the $1400 area will be decisive. At that point, I believe PM stocks will go nuts, probably more than doubling within 6 to 12 months. Individual stocks could easily go up by 400 to 600%. We’re not there yet though. A rapid move to above 110 on the dollar ISN’T impossible. In my view, taking the signal from gold and cycle timings into account, it’s a low probability (maybe 10 to 15%). As Fully has said, gold can rise along with the dollar, and certainly needs to start showing relative strength. However, a 20% rise in the dollar would likely kill any hopes of a gold breakout for some time. Also worth remembering, is the fact that gold is already breaking out from multi-year downtrends in other currencies. I’ve tried to summarise a lot of this on the chart below.<\/p>\n
Which way ? I like Avocados chart. It keeps me alert to the possibility of a huge dollar rally. What stops me from thinking this is the most likely outcome is time.\u00a0 We’re running out of it. Everything else seems … Continue reading ![\"\"](\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Chart729DXY.png\")
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