{"id":433158,"date":"2018-08-13T10:04:42","date_gmt":"2018-08-13T14:04:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/?p=433158"},"modified":"2018-08-13T11:34:13","modified_gmt":"2018-08-13T15:34:13","slug":"the-us-dollar-boink-point-fascinates-me","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/?p=433158","title":{"rendered":"The US dollar fractal and BOINK point fascinate me &#8230; USDX and gold symmetries &#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The US dollar BOINK point. Great name by the way, guys. Fascinating chartology too.<\/p>\n<p>Three parts: The elegant $ fractal chart \/ Subtle differences 1999 vs 2018 \/ Other symmetry of gold and dollar moves in past 20 years.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The elegant chart:<\/strong> Thinking again of Rambus\/FGC&#8217;s charts on the dollar fractal and the bounce labelled &#8220;BOINK,&#8221; I re-jigged a chart from Rambus and included the long term falling wedge downtrend line in blue to show this.<\/p>\n<p>Something that fascinates me: will the US dollar ever go below that blue line again?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/us-fractal-monthly-to-repost-goldtent.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-433159\" src=\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/us-fractal-monthly-to-repost-goldtent-696x800.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"736\" srcset=\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/us-fractal-monthly-to-repost-goldtent-696x800.png 696w, https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/us-fractal-monthly-to-repost-goldtent-130x150.png 130w, https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/us-fractal-monthly-to-repost-goldtent-261x300.png 261w, https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/us-fractal-monthly-to-repost-goldtent.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>The goldtadise article by FGC with the similar chart is here:<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"OyQjyoz1UP\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/?p=429981\">THE MOST INTERESTING CHART ON THE PLANET<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;THE MOST INTERESTING CHART ON THE PLANET&#8221; &#8212; Goldtent TA Paradise\" src=\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/?p=429981&#038;embed=true#?secret=zVehO6qC4h#?secret=OyQjyoz1UP\" data-secret=\"OyQjyoz1UP\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Here is that chart. I added the red line at the bottom to ask the question: is it a genuine falling wedge and if so does it have a target of 160? The fractal scenario with the half way structure would suggest a target in the 110-120 range, perhaps:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/dollarm-FGC-Rambus-modified-a-bit-to-wedge.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-433169\" src=\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/dollarm-FGC-Rambus-modified-a-bit-to-wedge-800x399.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"319\" srcset=\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/dollarm-FGC-Rambus-modified-a-bit-to-wedge-800x399.png 800w, https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/dollarm-FGC-Rambus-modified-a-bit-to-wedge-150x75.png 150w, https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/dollarm-FGC-Rambus-modified-a-bit-to-wedge-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/dollarm-FGC-Rambus-modified-a-bit-to-wedge.png 1240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Now, the subtle differences between the two scenarios (1999 and 2018):<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1. The first occasion (in 1999) the bounce was off the 11-year downtrend line.<br \/>\n2. The second occasion (2018) the bounce was not from the 11-year downtrend. The breakout never returned to that line. The BOINK bounce was from the larger degree 33 year downtrend line from the dollar top at 160 in 1985.\u00a0<strong><em>Does this suggest a possible eventual \u00a0move of larger degree than the move during 1999-2001?<\/em><\/strong><br \/>\n3. There is another subtle difference in the dollar lows in each cycle. In 1992 the low came on peak 5 and in 2008 it came on peak 3 out of the 7 labelled in each case in black and red respectively on the lower chart. On the top chart the peak numbers were 3 in 1992 and 2 in 2008. The bottom came a bit earlier in the last $ bear cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Other points:<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s been mentioned that &#8220;the time for the dollar bull has run out&#8221; (2008-2016) \u00a0&#8211; but:<br \/>\n1. These dollar bulls vary somewhat in duration and price magnitude.<br \/>\n2. The first bull on these charts was from 1992 to 2001 (9 years, not 7.5 or 8).\u00a0Still, that would suggest a 2017 top this time around (2008-2017) but if it varies, maybe not.<br \/>\n3. The dollar bull previous to these two was from around 1979-1985 (6 years only) and was the most aggressive by far, topping at USDX 160.<br \/>\n4. The last dollar bear had what looks like a &#8220;genuine&#8221; re-test of the 2008 low in 2011 on the USA debt ceiling crisis, almost a double bottom. My little brain just tickles with the thought that this is somehow important. <em><strong>Maybe one could consider a 9-year bull market from 2011 instead, which would run to 2020 at the outside, plenty of time for a good upmove to a higher $ top.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m looking for measured moves on these charts and am not sure where if it all they would come from. Any ideas?<\/p>\n<p>Parting thought if you got this far!<\/p>\n<p><strong>There is another piece of elegant symmetry between gold and the US dollar:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Turn of the Century\/Millennium:<br \/>\nYou can see clearly from the charts that the dollar had a good upmove from 1999-2001<br \/>\nMeanwhile gold already made its low in 1999 and re-tested the low in early 2001 and HELD a higher low.<br \/>\nThen followed the gold bull market and the $ bear market<\/p>\n<p>Fast forward to 2008:<br \/>\nGold had a good upmove from 2008-2011 ($1025 peak in 2008, crash to $680 and zoom up to $1920 in 2011)<br \/>\nMeanwhile, the US dollar had already made its low in 2008 (March, similar time to the intermediate gold high of $1025).<br \/>\nThe US dollar re-tested its low in 2011 at the same time as gold hit its all time high of $1920 and the dollar HELD and made a higher low.<br \/>\nThen followed the dollar bull market and the gold bear market.<\/p>\n<p>Surely both of those were gorgeous non-confirmations signalling a major change?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>We have had a lower level non-confirmation since 2015.<\/p>\n<p>2017 saw a higher high in the dollar compared to 2015 but not a lower low in gold since late 2015. That is perhaps something for the gold bulls to hold onto for dear life. I don&#8217;t know if this is important because we don&#8217;t have really convincing evidence of a top in the dollar yet &#8230; do we? Or a bottom in gold.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US dollar BOINK point. Great name by the way, guys. Fascinating chartology too. Three parts: The elegant $ fractal chart \/ Subtle differences 1999 vs 2018 \/ Other symmetry of gold and dollar moves in past 20 years. The &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/?p=433158\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2414,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,196],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-articles","category-dollar-fractal"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2414"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=433158"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433158\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=433158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=433158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=433158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}