We have a poster here named “Russian” <\/p>\n
He is a lurker mostly but once in a while he posts a gem in a comment<\/p>\n
This Comment NEEDs to be on a front line Post…Some real mindbending insights here…thanks Russian<\/p>\n
Russian \t<\/p>\n
4. May 13, 2017 – 11:23 am at 11:23 am (Edit)\t<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll make two contradictory arguments (regarding gold’s prospects) just for entertainment sake. This is not my original thoughts. Just summarising different people ideas. <\/p>\n
THIS TIME IS THE SAME:<\/p>\n
Gold.
\n Gold is the only element in periodic table defies entropy. On an atomic level, it resists interacting with other elements. Ancient knew that all along using gold as a medium of exchange throughout millennia. Not to mention the fact that gold was created in a collision of two neutron stars. But that\u2019s existential and irrelevant.<\/p>\n
Antifragile is Nasim Taleb concept. Opposite of fragile is not robust. Which is counterintuitive and hard to relate to the physical world, but makes sense. Something that benefits from out of normal distribution move (black swan, fat tail event) is antifragile. And there is no way around of fat tail event. Black swans can\u2019t be predicted only experienced.<\/p>\n
Besides the risk of fat tail event, there is mean reversion. Something of smaller magnitude. And we are stretched for it both ways \u2013 price and time\u2026 So, it is coming.
\n Being long volatility is the only way to protect yourself.
\n That\u2019s what gold miners ultimately do.<\/p>\n
THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT:<\/p>\n
Bitcoin
\n Bitcoin will succeed due to a network effect \u2013 sustainable parabola if you will. With all implications of that. The more use cases come on line for bitcoin in next two years \u2013 more users it attracts, the bigger market cap, the more talents it sucks in and so on. Presumably, all competitors will be ported into bitcoin because of that. Presumably, hard fork, if occurs, will cause correction or bear market. But won\u2019t be a threat to the existence of bitcoin. Will the younger generations find a safe haven currency in bitcoin at the expense of gold ?<\/p>\n
Technology. Antiaging pill goes on human trial. Cold fusion. Breakthrough in 2015. Now building real size model for testing. https:\/\/trialphaenergy.com\/company\/<\/a><\/p>\n Any of it or all of it together have potential to be a black swan to the upside. Yes, fat tail works both ways, sometimes you get outsized moves up or down\u2026<\/p>\n Unthinkable is possible. Embrace uncertainty.<\/p>\n Forgot quantum computing https:\/\/www.dwavesys.com\/quantum-computing<\/a><\/p>\n ………….<\/p>\n FGC comment…wow eh ?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" We have a poster here named “Russian” He is a lurker mostly but once in a while he posts a gem in a comment This Comment NEEDs to be on a front line Post…Some real mindbending insights here…thanks Russian Russian … Continue reading
\n Machine deep learning. Software writes software.
\nhttps:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/603381\/ai-software-learns-to-make-ai-software\/<\/a><\/p>\n
\nhttp:\/\/www.kurzweilai.net\/scientists-reverse-aging-in-mice-by-repairing-damaged-dna<\/a><\/p>\n