![\"\"](\"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/SPX.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nLet\u2019s say $SPX rises to ~ 2600 from here. Whilst a fall back to 1550 looks terrible on the quarterly linear chart, it would be ~ 40%, which is less than the previous two falls. The questions then are: how long does the fall take and what route does it take? Does it take 3 years, 1 and a half years, 1 year or less? My gut tells me it would take less time than the last and the fall would be similar: starting slowly, building up a head of steam, then something majorly snaps leading to the waterfall declines, panic, emergency meetings, etc.<\/p>\n
Looking at the chart in more detail, the green arrows show the gradual increase in the rate of change of the $SPX over time. I count the current pattern as beginning in late \u201994 although I guess that’s open to debate. The $SPX rose from ~ 460 to ~1500 from late \u201994 until the start of 2000, ~ 5 years. That\u2019s a rise of 326%. If we then assume that the $SPX bottoms this time around in 2018, 2019 at 1550, we\u2019re only talking 2023-2024 before the $SPX finally tops out at just over 5000.<\/p>\n
What I like about this scenario is I can almost see the TV spokesmodels thrilled at the break of 5000. What comes after that, who knows, but my guess would be “nothing good.”<\/p>\n
What the above (extremely<\/em> speculative) scenario means is the Fed fires up the QE afterburners when the $SPX is hitting ~ 1550 again. That would then go hand in hand with the $USD embarking on a multi-year fall, commodities and PM\u2019s embarking on a multi-year rally\u2026, etc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" What if the rectangle (first spotted by Rambus for me), is just one giant halfway pattern to the upside? Let\u2019s say $SPX rises to ~ 2600 from here. Whilst a fall back to 1550 looks terrible on the quarterly linear … Continue reading