{"id":368409,"date":"2016-04-29T18:49:47","date_gmt":"2016-04-29T22:49:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/?p=368409"},"modified":"2016-04-30T11:56:56","modified_gmt":"2016-04-30T15:56:56","slug":"is-dollar-usdx-chart-in-2014-2016-looking-like-gold-in-2011-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/?p=368409","title":{"rendered":"Is dollar USDX chart in 2014-2016 looking like gold in 2011-2013?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Well, as Spock says, don’t analyse, just look: I looked at a chart\u00a0from another goldtadise member (Surf City, link in comments section) regarding\u00a0the USDX and before I expanded it and saw it clearly, I though it was a gold chart from 2011-2013. However it was actually the USDX from 2014-2016! The similarity struck me.<\/p>\n

So here are the two charts. \u00a0Note as well as similar price action, the price swings are getting longer in time, which is one of Professor Didier Sornette’s favourite features of a post bubble action. A potential USDX target would be around 87 for an initial major downmove to be equivalent to gold’s trip to $1320 in April 2013:<\/p>\n

\"gold<\/a> \"usdx<\/a><\/p>\n

Now, I don’t have time to look at Commitment of Traders or any momentum indicators but I have just posted this as a little provocative idea for anyone to chase up if they see fit.<\/p>\n

A couple of further\u00a0points:<\/p>\n

Of course, gold subsequently went to a low of $1180 and then later as far as $1045, so if the USDX were to follow that pattern it might end up in the low 80s. That would not really be a collapse exactly.<\/p>\n

Secondly, the timing of this dollar action is a little faster than gold’s equivalent action. Following gold’s chart action from 2011-2016 would not fit in with the normal 8 year up cycles and down-cycles of the US dollar as far as I can see, that would perhaps predict a dollar top in 2016 but then a dollar low in 2023-2024. If gold has already made its low in December 2015, the dollar would make an equivalent low perhaps sometime in 2018. So I am not wedded to this idea; it’s just an idea!<\/p>\n

What could cause a sudden down-move in the US dollar? Well, perhaps if we are in the midst of a large upside reversal in commodities and gold, inflation figures could fairly quickly turn up and wrong-foot the Fed as they are glacial in raising interest rates. In my article on Kitco’s marketslant.com, I proposed that a reversal in commodities could add up to 1.6% to the CPI-U inflation rate taking it from 1% to 2.6%, over the Fed’s 2.0% target while interest rates are still well below 1%.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.marketslant.com\/articles\/has-fed-lost-plot-and-ignited-perfect-storm-gold<\/a><\/p>\n

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Well, as Spock says, don’t analyse, just look: I looked at a chart\u00a0from another goldtadise member (Surf City, link in comments section) regarding\u00a0the USDX and before I expanded it and saw it clearly, I though it was a gold chart … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2414,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-368409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/368409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2414"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=368409"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/368409\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=368409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=368409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldtadise.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=368409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}