Avi Gilburt: The Recent Metals Action Is “Causing” Me To Change My Life

Good read, thanks Avi.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1505135400.php

Avi Gilburt: GDX has moved above your wave 2 low…we can’t be in a 4th wave with a 5th down to come

Avi Gilburt Makes a Point

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1450364820.php

Avi’s take

Here’s a post from a former gold tenter, Avi Gilburt.  The title is rather ominous “This is it for gold”:

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/this-is-it-for-gold-cm982

Bottom line: GLD has to hold the 119 “region” or else (the or else isn’t specified).  Currently GLD is at 118.86.

 

For you DeMark fans, GLD has both downside red Sequential and pink Combo 13 signals as of yesterday.

Some charts on EW of Avi

Hi, I picked up some charts of Avi Gilburt about his Abx/GLD counts, just to see his (bullish) possibilities about gold and gold stocks.

It seems on GLD , he has a quite bullish count, on ABX (GDX) on the other hand he only sees it returning to 2016 high’s when GLD should be at new highs again .

Any opinion?

Maybe the author of the following article has a point, that you should only own mining equities if you buy these at a bottom and play for a relief rally, nothing more:

Why gold is a better bet than gold miners

 

AVI G: Final Run To Lower Lows Setting Up (GDX)

Can’t wait for final low in PM sector!!!!
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For AVI G followers:

Final Run To Lower Lows Setting Up (GDX)

This past week, when the market chose to not take this corrective rally higher, it may have provided our answer. With the more complex w-x-y pattern seemingly completing this past week, and with what seems to be a nice 5 wave structure having developed to the downside in GDX, it looks like we have our set up for the final drop.

Breaking below the market pivot on the 8 minute chart without being able to move back over it is confirmation that we are likely heading down to the 9.65 region to potentially complete this 4+ year correction.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gilburt/gilburt012016.html

SPX PREDICTING TRUMP LANDSLIDE ?

This is Interesting …from Avi Gilburt quoting Robert Prector

In sum, Mr. Precther concluded:

“We believe our study helps demonstrate that aggregate voting at the margin—swing voters—are not so much rationally weighing the potential value of each candidate but rather voting primarily based on how they feel. When a positive trend in social mood induces investors to push the stock market upward during the three years prior to an incumbent’s re-election bid, it also induces voters to credit the incumbent for their good moods and vote to retain him in office. When a negative trend in social mood induces investors to push the stock market downward during the three years prior to an incumbent’s re-election bid, it also induces voters to blame the incumbent for their bad moods and vote to reject him from office.”

https://goldseek.com/article/what-market-saying-about-trumps-re-election

Patriots…stop shorting and start buying 🙂

Bottom Zinn (ABX) or snot?

could have added to prior posts, but pretty long
just an fyi here …. I don’t generally track individual miners except for information content

Elliottwavetrader
25 mins ago·

Is Barrick Gold Bottoming?

By Avi Gilburt

We have seen downgrade after downgrade on Barrick Gold (ABX) for years. Many keep looking lower and lower, with some even considering that this stalwart in the miners’ complex may even go out of business due to its debt load.

However, back in 2015, it was one of the first miners to bottom. In fact, when we saw the potential bottoming of ABX in 2015, we actually opened our EWT Miners Portfolio in September of 2015, and the ABX was one of our first buys.

But after it hit its high over a year and a half ago, it has been within a corrective pullback from the August 2016 high. And, since that time, it has seen sentiment about the company drop consistently.

In the last quarter of 2017, when the GDX broke its upper support in September, I noted that the ABX has a set up to take it down to the 11-12 region, and we were in the 16-17 region at the time. And, if you note the “buy zone” on the chart below, it was placed there in September of 2017.

Currently, ABX has struck our downside target but has not confirmed that the downside is yet complete. We are now just below the resistance we were looking for it to hit its head upon in the 12.50 region. As long as ABX remains below this resistance, it has a downside set up to drop towards the 10.80-11 region to complete this long-term pullback in which it has been mired since mid-2016.

However, if we see strength through the 12.50 region, and it can continue to rally up towards the 13.50-14 region in the next few weeks, then it provides us with a strong indication that the lows for ABX have been seen, and we are likely setting up the next major bullish move for ABX for the rest of 2018.

But, under either circumstance, I expect the ABX to strike a significant bottom in the near term, and see it resume its bull market run into the end of the year.

Lastly, since ABX has been a major drag on the GDX of late, I believe that the GDX will finally begin its bullish pattern once the ABX finds a bottom and is no longer a drag on the GDX.

Charts

https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/scharts/Charts-on-ABX-201803151811.html?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Web&utm_campaign=AviMetals

Gold stocks more weakness to come?

After reading comments about several analysts like Spock, Surf, Graddhy, MSA (Michael Oliver), Bob Hoye,.. I really have to come to conclusion that nobody has clear advice or opinion what to  do with gold stocks vs gold on a short term/ mid term time frame.

Gold looks fine and has been posting higher lows since end 2015, the shares however after having a nice rally in 2016 are behaving really weak.

With USD going to test 91-92 and gold maybe test $1300 (my opinion) or lower (Bob Hoye view), Hui could test 160 level (end of 2016 bottom) as Hui is already testing end 2017 lows and current weakness could easily stretch further down as the USD rally has not finished yet.

I thought that maybe cycle analysts could help us here as having a clue if current period we could have low or not.

But it seems Surf does not know it either if we hit bottom already or will we get more weakness. ( see article posted recently)

I have no clear opinion neither, but the weakness of the shares really surprises me, and tell us we may have more weakness to go for.

An interesting view on how we could spot a bottom is Avi Gilburt’s take on relative weakness and strength of individual gold miners.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145416-sentiment-speaks-mining-stocks-frustrating-trade-last-year

Looking at ABX chart , we see already some bottoming taking place vs. the Gdx, although higher RSI levels would be showing more strength than currently in place.

 

 

We will see what brings us next, maybe a short term rally, but I am afraid more weakness will follow, as at every sign of gold weakness the last weeks gold shares decline sharply and are are not anticipating any rally of gold to follow after this $ bear market rally or not. But maybe this is typical of gold shares and cycles as it always looks the most scary to invest before the bottom and up cycle afterwards.

My take to make money: focus on explorers and development stories, buy when nobody does, do your own due diligence and wait until the market comes back. Remember you could have bought NAK at 0.25 in Jan of 2016 and being up 1000% afterwards. Of course not all development plays were that cheap or benefited that much from Trump election, but even MAX could give you a 400% return, SBB, 300% or SSP 650%. So why buying GDX stocks and being exposed to share price dilution and/or cash flow problems? I think that having exposure to developers and/explorers could be far more rewarding than gold production stories down the road, so do your own due diligence!

Looking at LT EW counts

It was thinking about a topic on EW as some EW followers showed on this website and others that the gold 2011 Top was a major top as we have major tops in gold every 30 years, so current action should be seen as corrective with next rally to top at 1550 level. Others however like AVI remain in the bullish camp and believe we are in  a new bull market.

One thing that does not fit into the bearish theory is the fact that the US$ bottomed /and the Euro topped in 2009 already (CHF however only topped in 2011!). So the questions is was maybe 2008 the top in gold and from 2008-2015 we got and ABC correction or was 2011 the gold top, and what are the implications of that.

This is a chart of gold stocks by elliottwavepredictions.com having both bullish and bearish counts (on website)

http://elliottwavepredictions.com/http:/elliottwavepredictions.com/category/gold/

As these charts are from last year, better not debate too long on this, but it shows what is possible however.

Other analysts like AVI Gilburt, have different counts and are definitively in the bullish camp:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-it-time-to-call-the-bottom-in-gold-2016-02-11

 

As the previous author AVI saw the top in HUI/GDX in 2008 and action since as an ABC correction.

I definitely prefer an analyst that mainly has one count like AVI, otherwise it looks just like a toss game.

This author ( Enda Glynn,) is seeing as others shown on goldtent before, a B up move in gold to 1550 as next scenario:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/44254/an-even-more-bullish-wave-count-for-gold

 

A good video about LT gold cycles and Hurst is the following webinar from 2016: In this webinar cycles like Hurst cycle analysis are used, and since following the author its chart my belief however in Hurst has far diminished as is is too complex for me and not always working, however the overview is very nice:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFmWerwLHrU&t=2755s

 

My personal experience is that this is a lot of information and sometimes very confusing, I therefore prefer to stay to basic technical analysis like long term gold charts with weekly/ monthly momentum readings.

 

Personally I prefer  LT charts instead of multiple wave counts, although it is nice to see the possibilities. In the next 2/3 years when gold does not go above 1500-1600 again, I fully trust charts like this to guide me.

 

 

 

 

TA Bashers …they are out there

I get angry and aggressive emails form gold people…usually permabulls and other Neanderthals who don’t accept that the various forms of TA have any use and are just mental masturbation at best and charlatanism at worst.

I even get hate mail for “leading the poor sheeple astray with my favorite form of Technical Analysis….Chartology”

Lately I have just been Ignoring them but sometimes I wish I could address them here.

Here is a post from Avi Gilburt in response to a particular character who has criticized his use of Elliot Wave Theory .

I’m posting it not to pump Mr Gilburts Tires but because I think he hit this nail right on its head.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1477836600.php

Follow People with Proven Track Records

Who are they? Rambus, Spock, Plunger, Surf, Avi Gilburt, and others on this site.

There are many with lousy track records. Avoid them. Of course you have to look at their track records to be able to tell who is who.

When people like Rambus, Plunger, and Spock speak, I listen. Why? Because they identified the last bear market in PMs and identified this new bull market.

GDX Potential Targets

Here’s a look at how Advanced GET is currently viewing GDX  on a weekly chart.  A couple of takeaways for me: (1) the W 5 projections seem to dovetail with Avi Gilburt’s 2016 projections for GDX; (2) on the somewhat negative side the JTI (Joseph Trend Index) is currently red (i.e. very overbought).  I think I will sit tight for now as Mr. Spock recommends.

 

Image 1

GOLD

Here we go again, this time GOLD saving the debt ridden of another country. Will be some time before GOLD and SILVER run out of countries to save.

We must be in the heart of Avi Gilburt’s 3 of 3. Good call, Avi.

Jack Chan long term SPX

In the extended EW exchange a few pages down, Cashcosts mentioned Avi Gilburt as one of the ‘hotter’ EWers. Yet Avi is generally maintaining a very bullish longer term outlook for SPX. This chart from Chan raises serious questions about Avi’s big picture SPX count in my mind. Avi also thinks a gold bull revival is NEXT. But his LT wave count for gold starts from 2000, like many others. If you start from the wrong place in EW with your count, you never find the right trail. That’s why I went back MUCH further for gold. (And that’s why I also rely on my long term TA tools to validate ‘where we are’ in the counts).

My point is that good technicians on the shorter time frames can easily go astray on the longer ones. My issue with Jason (Pretzel) is that he only trades “the present”. That serves him and other ES traders very well, but not everyone trades that way. Some of us depend on longer term views. With that background, here is Jack Chan’s system. TLB .. trendline break … BS and SS are buy and sell signals. This chart is from Oct 30. He’s been biased LT short ever since. Its not for pinpoint trading — its for whether he’s looking mostly for long trades or short trades. Since the TLB, he’s looked for short side setups. Bottom line, toss the bullish SPX wave counts out until further notice.

Chan2016

PS — there is one issue with Chan’s system that I’ve never fully resolved. Where PRECISELY do you draw the trendline? It might look obvious now, in retrospect. But its an exercise all on its own.