IT’S TIME
Trump is increasingly signaling that regime change, not another deal, is his preferred outcome for the Islamic Republic.
His rhetoric has shifted. Trump says he “couldn’t care less” whether the Islamic Republic signs another agreement, arguing that its economy is collapsing and asking: “When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?”
The blueprint now appears to be economic strangulation without giving the Islamic Republic an easy diplomatic escape, while allowing internal pressure to build and seeing whether the system breaks from within.
A deal may remain possible, but Trump is signaling that he no longer needs one if the alternative is the Islamic Republic continuing to weaken and potentially collapse.
https://x.com/TheIranWatcher/status/2094958526200258904
AND RIGHT ON CUE
A car has plowed directly into a pro-IRGC gathering in Mashhad, with multiple Basij members reportedly killed and dozens injured.
The vehicle struck one of the Islamic Republic’s nightly pro-regime gatherings on Eqbal Lahori Boulevard, where government supporters and Basij members had assembled.
Videos circulating from the scene show people on the ground, scattered flags and debris, and a heavily damaged vehicle as bystanders rush around the area.
Opposition accounts are claiming at least four Basij members were killed and dozens injured, while regime-affiliated accounts acknowledge deaths and injuries but claim the driver was drunk.
The circumstances remain unclear, including whether the driver deliberately targeted the gathering. The driver has reportedly been detained.
These nightly gatherings have become a regular show of support for the Islamic Republic in Mashhad and other cities since Khamenei’s death, making tonight’s incident particularly significant.
VIDEO HERE
https://x.com/TheIranWatcher/status/2094891750213251238
AND ANOTHER
BREAKING: Another car has rammed into a pro-regime gathering in Iran, this time in Golestan Town, Shiraz.
As the Iranian people remain unarmed against a tyrannical and murderous regime, some may be turning their cars into weapons of resistance.
MORE SCREWS BEING TIGHTENED…SEE COMMENT SECTION
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Islamic Republic’s economic “death spiral” could end in one of three ways: IRGC infighting, an uprising, or a forced deal.
The strategy is simple: tighten the squeeze until the Islamic Republic is forced into one of three outcomes.
1. The IRGC turns on itself.
As oil revenue and access to hard currency dry up, the patronage system holding the IRGC together comes under enormous pressure. Commanders and competing factions could begin protecting their own money, businesses and networks, triggering internal power struggles, purges and fractures within the security establishment.
2. The Iranian people turn on the Islamic Republic.
Economic collapse, shortages, unemployment and unpaid wages could fuel another nationwide uprising. The critical point comes if financially strained Basij, police or military units begin refusing orders, abandoning posts or defecting, weakening the machinery the Islamic Republic relies on to suppress protests.
3. The Islamic Republic accepts a deal on U.S. terms.
If the leadership believes continued economic isolation could trigger either an internal fracture or another uprising, a deal becomes a matter of survival. The United States can then use sanctions relief as leverage to demand verifiable concessions that the Islamic Republic cannot simply reverse once the pressure disappears.
China is giving Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf orders, laying down four conditions the Islamic Republic must meet before his trip to China and any meaningful expansion of relations.
Hossein Marashi, secretary-general of Iran’s Executives of Construction Party, says China has conditioned Ghalibaf’s trip and deeper ties on four demands:
Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Stop charging vessels transit tolls
End disputes with Saudi Arabia
End disputes with the United States
The account comes from Marashi rather than an official Chinese announcement, but the demands closely align with China’s interests and its repeated calls for normal navigation through Hormuz.
The power imbalance is enormous. China buys roughly 80–90% of Iran’s remaining oil exports, while Iranian crude represents only a fraction of China’s total imports. The Islamic Republic desperately needs China. China can buy its oil elsewhere.
That gives China enormous leverage over the Islamic Republic. It can squeeze Iranian oil purchases, demand deeper discounts, delay payments, withhold investment and use high-level political access as a bargaining chip.
Hormuz has made the problem worse. China depends heavily on energy flowing through the Persian Gulf and has far larger economic relationships with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states than it does with Iran. The Islamic Republic turning Hormuz into a toll booth and battlefield directly threatens Chinese interests.
For years, the Islamic Republic sold its “Look East” strategy as proof that China would provide an alternative to the West and protect it from isolation.
Instead, the relationship has exposed just how dependent the Islamic Republic has become.
The Islamic Republic wanted China as a strategic partner. Now China is giving it orders.
The US military struck two Iranian government tankers during Tuesday’s attacks on Iran, Axios reported, citing US officials.
A US official said the strikes were carried out under a new “tanker for tanker” policy approved by President Donald Trump to deter Iranian attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The tankers were anchored off Iran’s coast north of the US naval blockade line, and US drones fired missiles into their engine rooms, according to Axios.
US officials said around 100 targets were hit in Tuesday’s strikes, including Revolutionary Guards air defense sites, radar systems, mine-laying capabilities, communications sites and missile and drone launchers.