Loading ...A plan of unimaginable consequences is unfolding right before our eyes.
JEFF CHILDERS
Call it the Chokepoint Strategy. In the same 30-day period, the US has moved on three global arteries: the straits of Hormuz, Malacca (Indonesia), and now Gibraltar ( MOROCCO)
. It can’t possibly be a coincidence. It’s not luck.
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The old saw goes: Failure is an orphan— but success has many fathers.
Yesterday, markets jubilantly rallied and social media lit up white-hot after President Trump tweeted that the Iranians had agreed to virtually everything the US demanded. Corporate media remained skeptical, sniping at every seam, and stubbornly refusing to concede that no previous president has ever won a major war, from the sky, with no ‘boots on the ground,’ in only a month. But … Media’s tone is decidedly shifting. The Wall Street Journal’s entire Editorial Board ran a piece this morning headlined, “Hold Off on the Iran Victory Parade.”
Their skepticism has some merit. One of President Trump’s signature strategies is dramatically declaring a deal done before the ink dries. It’s keenly effective, because it jams his adversaries in a tiny box. They feel pressure to agree. If they deny the deal, Trump can just claim they welshed, and turn that against them in the next round.
But this time, Pakistani officials at the peace talks echoed Trump’s optimism — and so did Iran’s top negotiator, who speaks for its secular government. (Complicating the analysis, IRGC officials piled on unpleasant conditions, pointing to a growing schism in Iranian leadership.)
Here’s the thing. Despite the skeptical “hold off on the victory parade” headline, the editorial itself marked a sea-change from all the doomsday predictions excreted by the same editors since the war started a few weeks ago. Believe it or not, they are now publicly supporting President Trump. You aren’t going to believe this.
“Mr. Trump has the right instincts about Iran,” the Editors gushed, “and we will be the first to give him credit if the Iranian concessions turn out to be real.”
But will they? Will they be the first to give Trump credit? Mark that down.
? It got better. Recall that these same editors spent the last few weeks denying the Iranians even had any nuclear material to turn over. When that lie became untenable because Iran refused to agree to let the US look for that material, the editors pivoted to denying it was even possible. Now they are suddenly singing a different tune. “Mr. Trump is right to insist Iran turn over its enriched uranium,” the Editors urged, “and the regime shouldn’t be allowed to keep some in reserve or give it to an unreliable third-party.”
Trump is right! I bet you never thought you’d see those three words in print, much less in the WSJ and the NTY in the same week.
The best was yet to come. Until ten minutes ago, the Editors deplored the war as reckless brinksmanship inviting WWIII, denied Trump knew what he was doing, and called it illegal, darkly hinting about “war crimes.” Now? Behold: “The imperative now is to keep the pressure on,” the Editors recommended. They want more war. “The regime also needs to know the U.S. will strike again if it won’t come to terms.”
My goodness. But there was more. They even called Trump’s “chaotic” blockade good news. The Editors rousingly said, “The good news is that Mr. Trump said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will persist until a deal is reached.” They even called Trump’s blockade “critical to the success of negotiations,” and admitted, “it no doubt had something to do with Iran’s concession on the Strait.”
I guess President Trump had a plan, after all.
? The Editors even listed all the astonishing potential wins Trump accomplished yesterday (assuming the Iranians are smart enough to sign the dotted line):
“Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough,” President Trump wrote yesterday, which the Editors reprinted in full.
He said, “the U.S.A. will get all Nuclear ‘Dust,’” meaning Iran’s enriched uranium.
“No money will exchange hands,” Trump added. No more pallets of cash.
Iran has agreed to remove all mines from the Strait— and never close it again.
Iran will stop backing terrorist groups and proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah.
For once, the Journal is suddenly in lockstep with the President. On Air Force One last night, President Trump said he might not extend the ceasefire with Iran if no deal is reached by Wednesday, and that he may “have to start dropping bombs again.”
It wasn’t just the Journal. President Trump is suddenly enjoying a groundswell of support. In one tweet, Fox’s Never-Trump Brit Hume cited Brett Stephens in the New York Times:
Our reluctant European “allies,” many of whom denied or limited US military access to our own bases during Operation Epic Fury, now suddenly want to help:
Yesterday, virtually at the same time Trump was announcing the terms of the new deal, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Macron held a 49-country summit (including neither the US nor Iran), and jointly announced a multinational force to heroically “open the Strait of Hormuz.” They were mocked mercilessly. A day late and a dollar short.
Starmer said that the new multinational mission could be activated “as soon as conditions allowed.” Weasel word alert. He didn’t explain what the “conditions” were. Fair weather? Calm seas? After it’s already open and all the fighting’s stopped?
Thanks a lot, NATO.
? The Overton window on Iran just slid all the way to the right. Yesterday’s good news, as evidenced by corporate media’s conveniently timed defection from the Narrative, leaves Trump’s domestic adversaries high and dry. House Democrats have been trying to force a vote on a measure to stop the war. Now what?
Democrats spent weeks trying to build momentum around stopping Trump’s reckless escalation in the Middle East. A Lebanon cease-fire announcement —brokered by the same president they were accusing of warmongering— doesn’t just undercut their argument, it inverts it. You can’t simultaneously demand he stop the war and then refuse to credit him when he does. Their legislative maneuvering is now politically radioactive, because voting on it looks like attacking a peace deal.
Yesterday’s news also deflated Trump’s critics on the anti-war right, who were conspicuously quiet all day.
The Rand Paul wing and the MAGA non-interventionists had a coherent critique as long as bombs were falling— Trump was captured by neocons, led by the nose into Israel’s forever wars, and was betraying the base. But that critique requires ongoing conflict to fuel itself. Cease-fires and live Iran nuclear negotiations crack the narrative like a roasted chestnut.
Counting yesterday’s cease-fire announcement between Israel and Lebanon, Trump has now brokered conclusions to nine major conflicts. He resolved some of the thorniest disputes in the world, not least of all the historic Gaza peace plan. Each one individually would have been considered a major foreign policy legacy achievement for prior administrations.
Now he’s standing at the threshold of an equally historic resolution of a chronic, 50-year problem that kept the Middle East constantly burning and flummoxed every previous president. Resolving the Iranian nuclear question verifiably and permanently would arguably be the single most consequential foreign policy achievement since the end of the Cold War.
As I said at the top of this piece, while the Journal Editors pretended to remain dispassionately skeptical (while joining the Trump team), the markets obviously believed the Iran deal is real. Brent crude got absolutely hammered yesterday. April 17th’s settlement price landed around $82.01, with the oil prices plunging sharply on the news of the Strait of Hormuz opening. The WTI was down over 11% on the day at one point.
That’s a massive single-day move. The market essentially priced out the Middle East war in a single session. In other words, President Trump also delivered a direct, immediate economic benefit to every single American consumer —every voter— who buys gasoline, right alongside the geopolitical win.
? But wait! There’s more. Within days of announcing new economic and military deals with Indonesia —which critically controls the Strait of Malacca— we now have another Trump deal alongside another critical trade strait. Hespress reported, “Morocco, US strengthen military ties with decade-long defense partnership agreement.” Why Morocco? Morocco’s coastline runs the entire length of the Strait of Gibraltar— a tiny channel that controls all access to the Mediterranean Sea.
The Gibraltar Strait’s northern border is bounded by Spain, a NATO member. So increased US military ties to Morocco potentially signals bad news for NATO. We don’t need you anymore.
Call it the Chokepoint Strategy. In the same 30-day period, the US has moved on three global arteries: the straits of Hormuz, Malacca (Indonesia), and now Gibraltar. It can’t possibly be a coincidence. It’s not luck. A plan of unimaginable consequences is unfolding right before our eyes.