Loading ...200 day sma…
Look at your charts fellas…dow, spy, and naz are all under the 200 days sma right now….only one left is the russell, barely holding on. And transports not confirming by staying above 200 day as well, but once they all agree, watch out. Hedge or raise some cash…..
Not sure how PM’s and Oil can be up at the same time today….guess we’ll see how this resolves. Interested in the close today.
Still hedged on my PM’s, but scaling out little by little. Staying hedged over the weekend for sure. I would rather not make money on an advance of 3-5% in metals and pm stocks, than lose another 20% on a dump due to all out war on Kharg Island.
Never know when Trump would invade any of those islands. 10 days…but we are still bombing targets along with the Israeli’s…I guess when you are negotiating with liars, why would you tell the truth?
Oh yeah, forgot to mention Private credit fiascos as well….
maybe the peeps waking up to the bank runs, was oil up/ gold down for the last while but finally together today. We all wait for boots on the ground fiasco now…nice to see USA raised the military conscription age, I guess they are expecting a need for bullet catchers
Gold responds to liquidity. Until that liquidity is solved, it will sink lower, sometimes in extremes.
Liquidity IS the story.
Its probably responsible for PE collapsing (first), cryptos tanking (next), AI topping (Oct), all that shifted into PMs until they topped. Etc.
I think we’re just waiting on the Contagion spark. Which has already happened (Sell what you can), but the linkage remains hidden to most.
There is nothing getting around this from Armstrong: A Weekly closing below $4190 should send gold down to the $3845 level. A Weekly closing below that BEFORE the week of April 13th would then raise the possibility of a retest of $2800
Until then, all bets are off except maybe Hydrograph Clean Power and a few gold and silver stocks. It’s now the time for the unexpected bad news. Fuck the war. Painful.
Here you go Argent: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8jcQ4565Og
Yeah, I watch that guy. I don’t think the PM market is going to wait 12 months after the Feb crash to turn up. We’ll see. Like I said, I am hedged.
OIL has been artificially suppressed for so long (gold oil or silver oil ratio), it’s expected trading in relation to PM’s is irrelevant IMHO.
mid/long term mean reversion indicates OIL has a lot of ‘catching up to do’ regardless of swings in the PM’s.
If the PM’s go up, OIL on average will go up HIGHER, if PM’s go down, the mean reversion play is still very much in tact (oil higher – not in a straight line but inevitably longer term). I’ve found it to be easy money since last September. Falling wedge since 2023 with a 75% breakout potential based on the most basic TA. Not the spectacular performance of the miners (until recently anyway) but easiest trade since the 3/2020 negative futures price.