Loading ...The Most Revealing, Entertaining & Educational Video I Have EVER Seen!
WOW! Must watch. Don’t start watching unless you have 53 minutes to give your full attention to. Fascinating and the tagline about Satoshi and Bitcoin is really unimportant and comes at the end, which is exactly where it belongs. It is the WHOLE rest of the story that you have got to see. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIpXCMINceE
The 4 hour version here, I just started it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yALOChgRrHQ
After watching that (your) link, it’s beginning to make sense why Trump has brought the BTC and the bro’s into the jurisdiction of gov’t control (Treasury asset).
I don’t know all the pieces at work but how is the gov’t going to keep tabs on the new mob money if it doesn’t have a stake in it.
Before I watched, I was mulling over the text in your post this morning and what I’ve learned about BTC previously.
Here’s the rant.
Summary:
The halving schedule is the engine that drives BTC adoption and it will not end until 2140 or so (at current rate adoption).
Backdrop:
At current pace, halving isn’t set to cease until 2140 (or so), so until then HALVING contributes to the results below.
95% of all BTC has already been mined based on 4 halving cycles.
My notes assembled 1/12/2025
Prior post https://goldtadise.com/?p=643385
BTC without halving – what would happen.
I see two scenarios for the future of BTC but both have the same outcome
Halving process (event toward ‘scarcity’) stops or is impared as a result of:
1) BTC Miner Disruption (extending time until next halving) >> surplus (cheap) energy is sapped causing costs moon resulting from, for example, BTC carbon foot print discouraged by ESG govt decree, competition vs. war energy demands, etc.
2) Last Halving Event occurs >> BTC becomes a finite ‘resource’ – somewhere around 2140 – no one living today or likely born in the next 30 years will ever see this event. Again, this date is based on CURRENT mining rates – see 1) for events that may postpone it even longer.
Basically the finite aspects of BTC is the CARROT that no one living today will EVER get – nice how that works, kind if like how no-one today has a clue what it was like to use PM’s as money.
If it costs me $100k to mine 1 BTC, I’m not going to put it on the market (sell) until BTC makes it profitable – until that time, I’m holding a $100k liability (energy bill). So no more BTC supply until price exceeds cost of last BTC mined. This has the effect of delaying the BTC halving (toward scarcity) process. It also causes the BTC market to become illiquid until a certain price is achieved – IE, new BTC holders are buying at the higher price.
Trend in halving dates since 2016 is that BTC price explodes above costs as soon as price goes higher than last halving peak. Miners, shortly after a halving event don’t make any money until BTC price exceeds their cost which at the current rate of adoption is 6-9 months (we’re in that period since the last April 2024 halving), which is why so many are calling for a super spike in the near future.
Cycle repeats: after a halving event (2028) nobody is mining until price exceeds cost, putting upward pressure on price until then.
Once all BTC holders (currently 95% of all that will ever be produced), have quit selling after the last halving event, it’s a slow burn (bros not selling) until it exceeds the prior high and then explodes higher – new holders are happy and old holders are ecstatic.
Basically it’s the perpetual (for our lifetimes) GREATER FOOL THEORY – just like ponzi and MLM schemes. The oldest fish are the biggest fish.
Growth in value of old buyer BTC holdings STOPS once miners quit mining (cost > price)
Outcome of the two scenarios (see list below) – basically price collapse of the value of all BTC previously mined relative to what BTC can buy.
Notice how parallel the price of BTC follows cost to mine the next coin.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost
Note was free at time of writing but revisited 8-9-25, it’s behind a paywall
Another chart but much less interactive.
https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-s-price-is-just-16-higher-than-the-average-bitcoin-mining-cost
If mining stops, price stops growing – but again NO ONE today or born in the next 30 years will every see that day.
What drives BTC price?
The browser search response below was probably AI generated, however I think it demonstrates the hallmarks of a PONZI scheme where the DRIVERS of the scheme are those individuals (and jurisdictions) who mine BTC. When mining stops (too expensive) what happens to the value of all the previously mined BTC (see below) – ?
What competes with the mining of BTC for energy – everything. Cheap energy drives mining that’s why it moves from country to country looking for the cheapest home – which actually has the effect of driving up energy costs (sapping excess capacity) in those areas until the locals have had enough and the cycle repeats….. that is, until it runs out of places to go OR it becomes institutionalized/made legal tender by a gov’t.
“Bitcoin Without Halving Price”
Based on the provided search results (likely AI), here’s a summary of the potential effects on Bitcoin’s price if there was no halving:
1. Increased supply: Without halvings, the block reward would remain constant, leading to a steady and potentially unlimited supply of new Bitcoins entering the market. This could put downward pressure on the price.
2. Reduced scarcity: The absence of halvings would diminish the scarcity of Bitcoins, as the supply would not be gradually reduced over time. This could lead to decreased demand and, consequently, lower prices.
3. Miner profitability: Miners would face reduced profitability due to the constant block reward, making it less attractive for them to continue validating transactions and maintaining the network. This could lead to a decrease in mining activity, potentially causing network instability and security issues.
4. Market dynamics: The lack of halvings would alter the market’s dynamics, as the anticipation and excitement surrounding each halving event would be absent. This could lead to a more stable, yet potentially less volatile, market.
5. Investor behavior: Investors might adjust their expectations and strategies, focusing more on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term price movements. This could lead to a more stable and less speculative market.
6. Potential for inflation: Without halvings, the constant supply of new Bitcoins could lead to inflationary pressures, potentially eroding the purchasing power of existing Bitcoins.
7. Alternative scenarios: Some experts suggest that, without halvings, Bitcoin’s price might stabilize or even increase due to:
o Increased adoption and usage, leading to higher demand.
o Improved network security and stability, attracting more investors.
o The elimination of the uncertainty and speculation surrounding halvings.
However, it’s essential to note that these scenarios are speculative and based on hypothetical assumptions. The actual outcome would depend on various factors, including market conditions, investor behavior, and the overall health of the Bitcoin ecosystem.”
9-8-2025 notes revisited.
How BTC is similar to a ponzi scheme
At its core (and on average) BTC is only worth the amount of energy required to mine the next unit. When the halving/mining stops it’s ‘value’ will cease to rise however the amount of energy required to maintain it’s transactional infrastructure will continue to rise (circular sustanance).
I believe the architects of BTC envision that it must be mass adopted before the halvening/mining stops around 2140. Recent Gov’t actions to treat it as a Treasury Asset further incentivize it’s legitimacy and more importantly oversight.
Quite the extensive breakdown and analysis YYZ. While I agree with most of your conclusions I don’t think most long-term Bitcoin holders are going to be holding until 2040 or whenever the halvings end. The markets and economy will get so bad well before then. People will be liquidating anything that has any value and Bitcoins value will be melting away faster than an ice cube on a sweltering summer day.