Goldtent TA Paradise

EXIT POLLS RACE

SPLAIN THIS

SWING STATE FORECASTING ACCURACY

https://x.com/poll_fair/status/1854548395853046092

RED SHIFT IN BLUE STATES

EARLY VOTING

SWING STATE DELTA

Oh Ye of Little Faith

1…Hillary won the Total vote by 2% BUT Trump Won by a tiny fraction in the swing states in 2016. IF “They” could rig anything any time…would then not have found a few strategic votes then ?

2…Biden won the total vote by 4% and Trump lost by a tiny fraction in the swing states ….They needed Gazillions of Mail in Ballots in these states which allowed liberal quantitities due to covid ( against their own state rules mind you) and they needed the whole State controlled media to be on their side ( ban Trump from Twitter , Deny Hunter’s Laptop etc. )…Now we have X and Substack and Joe Rogan and Podcasts and and and

Also lets admit it …the Trump Campaign in 2020 was no where near as Powerful as the 2024 campaign…Tulsi RFK Jr Musk Tucker and a whole lot more compared to a less compelling campaign plagued by Covid and a destroyed economy

So yes they could and did find the few thousand votes they needed and frankly in hindsight this was the best outcome we could have wanted…4 years of the bullshit has changed the electorate for good

3…Mail in ballots cannot just be manufactured out of thin air ( Robert Barnes discusses this all the time in response to doomers ) They need to be requested in most states. They are DOWN 80% or so from 2020 ( no covid)

4….Early Voting and Mail ins are strongly trending Trump in the swing states

5….in 2020 Democrats and Dem Leaning independents were the Majority over republicans and Republican leaning independents by a 4 Point Margin…per The Gold standard Gallup Poll…today for the first time in history its Repub +3

6….Hispanics in polls are way more Trumpy than in 2020

7…Blacks ditto ( especially men)

8..Gen Z ditto

9…Unions are NOT endorsing Dems for the first time in memory…the teamsters did a poll…They would support Biden as usual but with harris…members strongly support Trump

10…Catholics Ditto

11…Jews …Ditto

12…Muslims for the first time support Trump way more than Harris

13…Baris says the White Working Class ( the largest voting block in the US which often voted Dems historically ) tended to support Scranton Joe in the swing states in 2024 ….but ask yourself ..will they support a Candian raised Hindu Ultra liberal from California ? …and this group historically do not answer polls…so

14…Polls underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020 by 4 points on average…presently in the RCP polling aggregate Trump is up ( by a tiny margin) but UP for the first time ever…add 4 points and it’s a landslide

15..The two most influential Liberal Govt controlled newspapers in the country have refused to endorse harris

16….This is called TOO BIG TO RIG HOWEVER…AGREE…Don’t take anything for granted…get out the vote in every Blue red and Swing State

all IMHO

17…PS…Trump’s Truth Social shares are UP 17% Today and Up 250% in a month …That is a TRUE measure of the state of the race IMO

18…Betting Odds at Polymarket where over 1 Billion is on the Books show Trump 66% kaka 34%

NYT FINAL INERNALS