Loading ...HUI tagged the 200WMA today…
I have no idea where it bottoms, but the next targets are the 300 and 400 WMAs. If price breaks below the 400 WMA (currently at 207), it’s anyone’s guess how low it will go. Personally, I don’t see it breaking substantially below the 400 WMA or for much time, but that is just a hunch.
Could it rocket launch off of the 200 WMA? Well, it seems doubtful given the threat of imminent “taper,” but never say never. I suppose if the employment number this Friday is absolutely awful, it’s possible it could create a low in the HUI.
Ultimately I do think the miners are setting up for a parabolic run over a 3-4 year period (based on my study of long term bollinger bands), but the next 2-3 months could be quite painful and frustrating.
I said it months and months ago, but in this sector you absolutely have to hope for the best but plan for the worst, because odds are, prices will go lower and for a longer period than you could ever dream.
“but the next 2-3 months could be quite painful and frustrating.”…not to mention the frustrating last 12 to 13 months price…
Well at this point, assuming you still believe we are in a PM bull market (which I still do), I think most of the damage has been done in terms of price and time. It’s possible we get a spike low that takes us sub 200 on the HUI (which would have seemed unbelievable a year ago in the current backdrop), but as we have seen time and time again, price in the short run can be pretty meaningless in this sector.
I not sure that a 200 (or 300 or 400) weekly moving average holds any significance on a long term chart. On the other hand, price has retraced a fib 61.8% of the increase from the March 2020 low to the Aug 2020 high. So right about here would be a good place for the correction to end before the next ascent commences. Let the countdown to blast off begin!
Yes, the fact that the 200 WMA and the 61.8% retracement are in the same area means there is a decent chance of a significant bounce here. But that being said, when have the miners ever done what they are supposed to do?
Additionally, the Mar-Aug 2020 rally looks impulsive (5 waves) and the decline since then looks corrective (3 waves). One more piece of evidence pointing towards a strong rally in the near future.
NFP will not be released until October 8th.
There’s only one thing that matters, and that’s the Everything Bubble.
Its been levitated by low rates, fed by central bank QE.
I’ve seen credible calls that T bonds have topped, ending the 40 year bull in bonds, and Everything else.
If so, the only bull market I see ahead is the one for margin calls.