Needless to say, many miners are oversold as can be, and I am expecting a very significant rally soon.  But Plunger’s point about the 200 EMA turning down signaling a cyclical bear market is a valid one.

Barring an absolutely monster rally in the next 2 weeks (e.g., HUI getting to 300+), the likelihood of taking out the August 2020 high in the next 6-12 months becomes extremely low.  That doesn’t mean we can’t have large rallies, much like the bear period between 2016-2018, but the risk will be in staying long, unfortunately.

Whatever, happens, it could be argued that the miners have never been in a proper trending bull market.  All we have had is 3 short spikes (2016, 2018 and now 2020) that have been followed by drawn out multiyear bears (2016-2018) or crashes (2020 covid crash).  Basically, if you haven’t bought only extremely oversold conditions, you have gotten burned getting long miners and holding.  To make matters worse, during the 2016-2018 bear, US stocks continued moonward.