Loading ...Major Hurdle Cleared – Minor Hurdle Days Away
As I posted last week there were two hurdles to clear before gold and silver resume their bull markets. The first and more important was getting past the expiration of June futures and options contracts for paper derivatives on the Crimex. The second, will occur after Wednesday wraps up the end of the month, quarter and first half. The metals may actually show some advanced strength because even though both are down year to date (gold more so, silver not so much) they are actually up for the second quarter. Yes, bears, you actually read that correctly. Despite the FED engineered slaughter earlier this month, both gold and silver are UP for the quarter! The selling has abated and the third quarter should be significantly higher for the precious. 
PS: Late last week Hulbert updated his sentiment readings on gold(contrarian indicator). Gold timers bearish which is bullish for gold. If we see a little bounce today, expect the usual pullback tomorrow(counter trend Tues.) if you are looking for an entry point.
Bear flags start to break down. GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, SIL…SAND got murdered. Other than that looks amazing.
Don’t follow those you listed above. My silver stocks are acting fine, some even great. Getting ready for takeoff.
“Don’t follow those you listed” Just the ETFs that literally track the gold and silver sector? “Chartmaster” doesn’t follow those. 😉 I’m a gold/silver bull but the charts are screaming step aside here.
I don’t want to be influenced by ETF’s. I follow the charts and technicals of gold and silver and numerous miners. That is what I make my calls based on.
Gold and Silver in bear flags too.
Personally I continue to build cash. What we have witnessed is a classic BMR (lasting 2-3 months from early March to Mid May) It has now failed spectacularly as indicated by these large cap, liquid stocks mentioned above which represent this sector. Where the generals lead the troops should soon follow. The cyclical bear market began last August and appears it has further to go. My personal target to watch is GDX 26. I certainly don’t pretend to know, however this is most likely unfold IMHO.
There will always be some issues that impress during this process (such as GoGold) since we are in a secular bull market, but the trend seems to be reasserting itself, and the reality to me at least is it’s to the downside.
Agree with the move down. My “hopium” based on GDX CHART I posted on Rambus forum is $30.5-31, where there is strong support. If that gives, the gap at $26 is likely to get filled.
Yes, I have my eye on that gap. In the bull from 2001-2011 the market filled all gaps. Doesn’t mean the 26 gaps has to be filled, but probability says it will.
Also the patterns for the multiple charts posted by Rambus last night look bad. This cyclical bear is a Grizzly, mauling gold bugs like raw salmon.
Well described Isarmina
Another thing worth mentioning IMO is the violence of the move gapping across significant moving averages such as the 50/150/200 all in one swoop in many of these significant issues and indexes. Not only this, but some occurring on days outside of the 2 takedown days at the beginning of this move a bit over a week ago. Look at SAND today… just vicious. IMO this is a clear signal that this is more than a mere shakeout, this is a resumption of bear market action. Sorry to be the messenger.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SAND&id=p13658763003&listNum=43&insp=1
Totally disagree, but that is what makes markets. May get some hints by end of this week but should know for sure which way things are going to go after the Fourth of July Holiday weekend.
I absolutely LOVE ALL this negative sentiment! Confirms to me next week will be explosive to the upside. If I am wrong and we crash I will eat crow and admit I was wrong. Not too concerned that that will be the case.
define explosive? are you still saying we hit 40 silver? A plunge down to 25 and reversal to back test the flag doesn’t count. You have been saying this same thing for a year, I get it, we should be breaking up, but the facts say it’s been a shit investment. Can’t even break 30 on silver. Once it does and actually holds we can talk
Explosive doesn’t mean $40 in one week. Let’s start with attacking and taking out the highs at $30+. I believe that will indicate higher prices to follow shortly after that.
I would agree that a breech of $30 would launch a run higher and get things very excited, however my read of the charts and intermediate market sentiment is for lower gold and silver prices likely into the fall (perhaps November?). Until the general market “risk on” sentiment finally leaves us due to a general stock market bear market PM’s will be weak. That’s where we are now IMO. Now this could end soon if the COMEX and LBMA finally run out of silver or gold, which I believe they will in the not too distant future.
Yes, we will have that lid blow off in the silver market and have market structure launch the silver price to unimagined levels, but we need to allow the process to unfold. It’s just not time yet… patience grasshoppers.
Since you are a reasonable guy Sir Plunger, let me throw this out for your consideration. It may take a pop above $30 to say somewhere near $40 or so and possibly a seasonal pullback to $30 or so before the big melt-up you describe that takes silver thru the ATH’s at $50 and beyond. I am not saying it has to come immediately all at once, but isn’t more likely to start now when we just had a shakeout and everyone seems totally bearish about the immediate future? The charts are not negative they are just doing repair work after the takedown. Perfectly normal.