Loading ...OK …Park your Camels and Gather in the Tent
What’ll it be this week.
More PM Bashing ? or a Turn around and back up the Truck Moment ?
Exhibit A ….Bob
Very very BAD Candle printed last week !
Odds are extremely high this is a local Top for a few weeks / Months / hopefully not years !
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Exhibit B….. Baby HUI
Not much Damage at all so far
First Fibo is 15 points below though 8% more down possible
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Exhibit C…..HUI:GOLD Ratio
Uninspiring so far…not at all like 2016 !
Exhibit D …Who’s still da Boss ?
1. I don’t know. I don’t think it’s good to get too excited or too sure one way or another.
2. I am inclined to think there will be a confusing mixture of “PM Bashing” movements as if to make me feel as if “back up the Truck Moment”. If I were forced to guess, I’d guess strongly that the PM Bashing tendency will net predominate. But my main thought, again, is I really don’t know and I will watch trying not to be overly reactive.
3. I think it’s a great opportunity for adjusting. I am personally a bit pressed for time during trading hours much of this week, so I may have to leave the old portfolio intact. However I will aim to sell some things I like less, lighten up or sell some things that have gone too high too fast, and perhaps add to some positions even start a new position. I will use a combination of charts and my (always limited) knowledge of the companies, whether from my own research only or also from others’ research.
However since I already had a lot of these stocks and since even after last Friday I am far more heavily exposed to it from the earlier big rises than earlier in the year when I already was heavily exposed, I personally will probably try first to sell a touch unless the week starts with a massive decline for PM stocks. I won’t sell much, just a some. But simultaneously I’ll be looking for bargains. If the market for PM takes off on up w/o my having bought new stuff, I’m fine with that.
As always I make exceptions for individual companies if I have some special reason to treat them exceptionally.
4. Hope that wasn’t too much.
Shorter version of my opinions I give to myself this week:
1. Long-term bias up so ok to hold
2. Short term probably down possibly a lot with a lot of fakes up, so sell into ups while looking for special case bargains. (I have 2-3 I am likely to sell ASAP at least partially, esp into rising prices)
3. Don’t stick to any prediction –be prepared to jettison any given outlook totally or parts thereof. Assume things will change so much that plan will have to change frequently — but don’t get carried away with excitement (up or down).
Ya. Sold something overnight. Thinking about 1-2 things to buy today and another to sell. I really don’t see the sense in having a fixed idea on what’s going to happen in the short to intermediate term in the market or to issue pronouncements about it but rather trying to read what the market says as it speaks.
I have a lot of PM holdings, arguably too many–loaded to the gills. May divest a bit. I am more interested in the detailed holdings of my portfolio than the indexes. <=My early Monday comments.
Here’s my play.
First, I am convinced gold will pull back at least into the mid $1400’s. If the downside is confirmed Monday/Tuesday, I’ll wade in with puts. My core holdings are staying put no matter what. Assuming this is a bull market, of course.
I’ll add that if silver/gold show a sharp reversal, I’ll go with feathering in calls. But I doubt a reversal at this point is in the cards.
Oh, and I don’t have a clue about silver – an enigma that likely will surprise everyone.
From a seasonality perspective this is normal to have an interim top until November –
Also I think we all knew this top was coming – silver went seminparabilic and there was too much froth here and in general- a correction is good so let’s welcome it
I’m taking one day at a time…remember the phrase…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFvAaO9j8M
Fully — you’ve made it clear that you have no confidence in indicators, which I rely upon heavily in my work.
But for those who use them, and give them some measure of respect, I will say this.
My key indicators closely resemble those at the PEAKS (plural) from 2016. April and July.
So … perhaps another ascent “soon”, or we’re already done.
EW counts are all over the map this weekend (the B wave from Dec 2015 has very challenging to count), so they are no help in terms of providing certainty.
Nice one Atomic! Colonel Kurtz is drawing us up river. Let’s see that golden shrine at the temple. I am no longer trading this market. I went all in December and have already seen some nice gains and shake outs back to the “gentleman’s entry”. I may play some DUST but my core is in place for the ride. GLTA!
Thanks Great Symbolism…the Tiger shaking you out of your position…the Boat your Core…doing a little JDST/JNUG now and again and EGO…GLTA