And anyone else who wants to know how I use cycle theory. I’ll be honest – I find cycles on the timescales of days and weeks very hard to analyse. I’ve tried, but I can often only make sense of it with hindsight. All the A-B-C’s and 1-2-3’s seem very hard to predict ahead of time. Even amongst Elliot Wave followers there are often differences of opinion. It doesn’t really matter to me though, because my game plan doesn’t rely on any of that. All I want to know, is which way the big trading patterns will break. The 8 and 16 year cycle lows coincided during late 2000/early 2001. The 8 year  cycle bottomed in 2008 and then they both coincided and bottomed again 2016. The next 8 year cycle low is in 2024, and then they coincide again in 2032.

So, knowing all that, we are pre-warned about which way the ‘trend’ is likely to be over periods of several years at a time. I wouldn’t go so far as to say it’s 100% guaranteed (just because predicting the future never comes with 100% certainty – as a weather forecaster, I’ve learned that over the years). That said, you can use the balance of probabilities to make an informed decision about what the future is most likely to look like. In this case, we are most likely to see PM’s trend upwards until we turn down to make that 2024 low. When will it turn down ? that depends on whether we have a left or right translated cycle. This is why I read everything the cycles experts like Surf, Rambus etc write, and place that alongside the chart patterns I’m following. I’ll sell all my PM shares at this downturn. When we turn up again after 2024, I intend to be all in again, and sell as we make that big turn and head down into the low in 2032. If it works out, you’ll be able to find me on a tropical beach with a nice cold beer in my hand after that. The chart below helps explain how I view things on these timescales…