Response to Eagle’s 1987
I tried to post this twice in Eagle’s 1987 thread. I hit send and it’s not showing up. Posting it here.
I am short today. Will sell slightly below the previous lows. (Will probably use as a sell stop a rise above last week’s highs)
After thought, I don’t believe we’ll see a 1987, massive drop.
I think we’ll go down to that Utilities long term trend line, which I posted about recently and has a bit to go down to, and I believe we’ll test the Dow 200dma which will be about 23,000.
In 1987, the stock markets had chugged pretty steadily up for 6 years. People were so confident. They had the second coming of Jesus, Reagan, as their head, and they thought it was a new tremendous time for America.
Today? Everyone is fearful. People still bring up 1987 every time there’s a small drop. 2000 and 2008 are still fresh in everyone’s minds. People are afraid of war. They’re afraid of Trump. They’re afraid of our debt. Fear is everywhere!!!
That’s why I think, a drop just below the previous lows, bull flag style is going to cause so many sellers but it will be just that a necessary “shakeout” before the rise. The purpose of a drop is to balance greed and fear. A drop below the lows is plenty in my opinion with those previous drops so fresh on people’s minds.
Rambus has said something like, “the markets like to rise up a wall of worry”. That’s what we’ll see all the way to 100,000 Dow by November 2023, in my opinion, with several more drops like this last one. Not many will be along for the ride except for the buy and hold folks. Most traders attempting shorts will get burned over and over.
My opinion only obviously.
Good luck Eagle and all,
Chuck
Great post. Check the fear guides, any of them as proof. As soon as the markets drop most run to the exits. It doesn’t take much to go form euphoria to fear. Just about a week using CNN’s fear gauge. But, any of them show the same thing. And I agree, ironically (and if you want irony PC just check out the New Testament- it’s replete) that is the fuel that will keep this market moving along at a fast clip with gyrations along the way to clear out the sentiment. Never seen anything like this before. That’s what two 50% haircuts over 8 years plus a mini bear between 2014-2016 will do for one’s investment psyche. This bull is just two years old. And here we go with the DOW now taking it on the chin at 3:14.
Following a “cycle” with the drop ending tomorrow and going up till the mid of March? As always, verified with charts…Thanks Chuck, glad you are well…
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