After reading comments about several analysts like Spock, Surf, Graddhy, MSA (Michael Oliver), Bob Hoye,.. I really have to come to conclusion that nobody has clear advice or opinion what to  do with gold stocks vs gold on a short term/ mid term time frame.

Gold looks fine and has been posting higher lows since end 2015, the shares however after having a nice rally in 2016 are behaving really weak.

With USD going to test 91-92 and gold maybe test $1300 (my opinion) or lower (Bob Hoye view), Hui could test 160 level (end of 2016 bottom) as Hui is already testing end 2017 lows and current weakness could easily stretch further down as the USD rally has not finished yet.

I thought that maybe cycle analysts could help us here as having a clue if current period we could have low or not.

But it seems Surf does not know it either if we hit bottom already or will we get more weakness. ( see article posted recently)

I have no clear opinion neither, but the weakness of the shares really surprises me, and tell us we may have more weakness to go for.

An interesting view on how we could spot a bottom is Avi Gilburt’s take on relative weakness and strength of individual gold miners.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145416-sentiment-speaks-mining-stocks-frustrating-trade-last-year

Looking at ABX chart , we see already some bottoming taking place vs. the Gdx, although higher RSI levels would be showing more strength than currently in place.

 

 

We will see what brings us next, maybe a short term rally, but I am afraid more weakness will follow, as at every sign of gold weakness the last weeks gold shares decline sharply and are are not anticipating any rally of gold to follow after this $ bear market rally or not. But maybe this is typical of gold shares and cycles as it always looks the most scary to invest before the bottom and up cycle afterwards.

My take to make money: focus on explorers and development stories, buy when nobody does, do your own due diligence and wait until the market comes back. Remember you could have bought NAK at 0.25 in Jan of 2016 and being up 1000% afterwards. Of course not all development plays were that cheap or benefited that much from Trump election, but even MAX could give you a 400% return, SBB, 300% or SSP 650%. So why buying GDX stocks and being exposed to share price dilution and/or cash flow problems? I think that having exposure to developers and/explorers could be far more rewarding than gold production stories down the road, so do your own due diligence!