Loading ...USD/JPY short-medium term
I’ll take another stab at the USD/JPY here. I’ll admit I haven’t been completely right on this lately. It’s been a tough read, although thankfully I was able to profit a bit on the $1300 break.
Up at $1,350 gold I think a lot of people said they’d wait for $1,300 to get back in. Well here we are, and we sliced through it seemingly easily. I’m looking at the USDJPY in two ways: Horizontal support/resistance and Vertical support/resistance.
My personal bias is in agreement with many others here – that there’s probably a few % more downside left for gold.
Vertical lines show we’re at/near resistance already.
Horizontal s/r lines say there’s more upside. So it’s a tough call.
Gold weekly shows my personal bias could be correct – a few % downside left. The 2011 downtrend is around $1,280, as well as a horizonal support and the mid-bollinger band which sometimes acts as support.
Conclusion: Tough read for me, but I’m leaning with my personal bias. A bit more to go.
Hopefully it’ll stop at $1280. If not, as I showed in an earlier post $1200 is possible, and we would still maintain a series of higher highs and higher lows.
Well if we break that 2011 downtrend line I think a lot of people will get scared. I believe $1200 would break that line. Hopefully it doesnt get there. I hope worst case is we bounce off that line a few times, maybe $1250 lowest, while staying above the line.
2 weeks ago people were calling $1500 today it’s $1200. There was a great post about a month ago regarding conviction to be able to weather a Gold Bull Market. If this is truly still the Gold Bull of 2 wks ago like I think it is corrections are going to be the norm.
Sept 7 I had Gold in USD as overbought by $35 today I have it calculated as oversold by $15 relative to the USD Index. I’ve been increasing my exposure to the PM ETF’s over the last 3 days. $50 price move on NK and Yellen IMO. I’ll continue to buy any further dips and sell any spikes to the upside the fundamentals haven’t changed just the headlines. Maybe I’ll getting taken to the woodshed?
I always think of the poster here who uses the Mr.Market analogy. Mr.Market is like an angry bull, he doesn’t want you to come along for the ride. Always trying to shake people out before the trend continues. I own some physical and that is extremely easy to just keep in the safe and forget about on a week to week basis. However, holding physical is far less profitable than owning miner etfs. But every time you get a 5% correction in gold, the miner ETFs fall 10-15% and it’s a lot harder to ignore in terms of wanting to protect your capital.
That’s the largest dilemma I face on a regular basis.
I totally agree. Gold could go to $800 or $2000 nobody knows for sure I’m trying to consistently increase my position slowly. Sell the Grand Headlines Buy the Doom. The SM could crash and take half the value as in 2008 anything is possible? I’m trying to invest on the swings caused by the Media headlines “Noise” with an objective view that gentlemen like Gradhhy have plotted a probable course for the next foreseeable future. The Mr. Market analogy is a terrific post. So is this a %50 BMR of the USD or a dip to lure in fresh money to get crushed in the PM Bear?