$WTIC + $CRB
I have posted comprehensively for a long time now on that the commodities are in a new bull market as I see it, backing it up with both traditional TA plus longer term cycles. My last major post on it is here:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=402797
The weekly below to the left for $CRB is a brand new chart. Look closely at how it interacts with my quarterly to the right. My important very long term trend lines is the reason why we have ended up with this sideways action the past few months.
And my weekly below shows that this sideways action has created a weekly expanding pretty symmetrical wedge (blue). It is my guess that this weekly expanding blue wedge of mine will end up being a halfway pattern to the upside.
Also, I am looking for a hammer-like candle on the quarterly when this month is done. And then a BO above my quarterly expanding blue falling wedge.
$WTIC below is now BT my weekly inverse h&s neckline once more and this will be the last time is my guess, i.e. it should be up from here. And my purple expanding wedge as a BT pattern to my inverse h&s neckline is holding its own.
And note on the monthly to the very right below that the black circles negate each other, i.e. my gigantic monthly rising expanding wedge is pretty much picture perfect.
Looking at my charts above, my expectation is that both $WTIC and $CRB will not go lower than right here (ADDED: that is, $WTIC´s weekly inverse h&s neckline plus $CRB´s support line of the weekly expanding blue wedge). It is up from here as I see it.
ADDED:
One other thing that could happen of course is that we get a DB on my quarterly $CRB chart above. There is room for that inside the quarterly blue expanding falling wedge.
Thanks Graddhy,
I do hope you’re right…
WTIC is NOT going up here…not today…its down hard.
5% down ..presently 45.80…NOT good ! Well its good if you are bearish…I am closing my shrt play ( HOD Canadian 2X) for a huge gain of 20% in 10 trading days….looks like support down here for a bounce
I have not said it will go up as per today.
Also, a 4-5 % move on the daily is not that uncommon for $WTIC.
Think it will hold my weely inverse h&s neckline.
Cheers Graddhy.
Bull markets of course are characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. I certainly don’t see that occurring here in either the CRB or WTIC, I have been pressing the short and it has been successful. When the market goes against ones position I suggest going to the sidelines and reassessing.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p18742583372&listNum=239&a=528319203
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p78202836317&listNum=239&a=528319245
I am not trading $WTIC.
In a range that the $CRB has been in for the last few months there are not higher highs and higher lows.
Looking at my monthly $WTIC above, it clearly has higher highs and higher lows.
Not sure to who/whom you are giving the very general suggestion to. Seems a bit out of place.
If my charts do not hold up I will of course change my view. But they are still on track.
That’s always the hard question of what term interval to evaluate ones market thesis. Such as markets always revert to the mean, however what term does one use to calculate the mean. Applying this to oil is very difficult as a mean is all over the map it just depends on ones time horizon. I no doubt has me guessing
Agree on that.
And just a note here, as many market terms like recession and bull market are first defined in hindsight, we can be in a commodities bull market now, which I do believe we are.
But as added in the post above, we could of course get a DB on my quarterly $CRB chart above. But it does not look that way right now as I see it.