HUI VERY Oversold
With fingers hovering on the sell button, I’m trying to be a bit smarter. Hopefully not too smart 😉 We’ve just broken some key technical levels, moving averages and support lines. The indicators are generally at a point where you’d expect some sort of bounce. I’ve had a closer look at the William %R.
It currently stands at -97.49 (on a scale from 0 to -100). On the chart below I’ve indicated every other occasion its been this low since 1997. On EVERY occasion a bounce of at least 25 has occured on the HUI and more typically around 50. The period in 1999/2000 displayed an extended period of repeated very low values, but if you look carefully, each time the indicator got below -95 there was a quick 10-15 point bounce (equating to about a 20% move). This happened repeatedly on the way to the eventual bottom. What do I conclude from this ? If we don’t get a 25 point plus move to the upside very soon (and more likely around 50 points), it will be the first time that has happened with the Williams %R indicator this low since at least 1997. That has to be pretty strong evidence a bounce is ahead. That could put us back above moving average/trendlines etc. The question would then be, is that just a ‘dead cat’bounce. Comments please….
Edit: Chart updated
Thank you, I am piece mealing into some miners for a bounce. Don’t plan to hold them beyond that.
That may turn out to be a good strategy Gary. We’ll see.
I’m guessing for GDXJ to go to around 28.5 so maybe looking for a reversal tomorrow. Today isn’t looking to be a reversal candle at this time. I’ll probably sell half or all my bear tomorrow. Only expecting a few dollar rise, maybe to around 33. Thank you for the historical Williams info.
Any Bounce will be sold …Support is gone…
Great chart Northstar.
Williams %R is a terrific indicator of sentiment but it can stay oversold or overbought for some time.
On a shorter time frame (daily) it is a great trading tool as stocks tend to move to -100, then bounce, then move back to -100 over about a 5 trading day period before moving higher.
Not so much for gold as it tends to turn on a dime and is more “time” based.
Having said that the 10 Mar turn for gold was very similar to what I normally expect for stocks.
Anyway very interesting chart – thanks.